Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently announced in September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this pattern as highly reliable based on decades of precedent, ongoing supply-chain stability, and the absence of any official signals pointing to a skipped or delayed cycle. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, manufacturing challenges, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines, these factors have rarely altered the overall yearly cadence in the past. Upcoming developer conferences and earnings updates may provide further confirmation, but current sentiment reflects strong confidence in the typical September window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
$105,072 Vol.
$105,072 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$105,072 Vol.
$105,072 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently announced in September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this pattern as highly reliable based on decades of precedent, ongoing supply-chain stability, and the absence of any official signals pointing to a skipped or delayed cycle. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, manufacturing challenges, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines, these factors have rarely altered the overall yearly cadence in the past. Upcoming developer conferences and earnings updates may provide further confirmation, but current sentiment reflects strong confidence in the typical September window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$105,072Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently announced in September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this pattern as highly reliable based on decades of precedent, ongoing supply-chain stability, and the absence of any official signals pointing to a skipped or delayed cycle. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, manufacturing challenges, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines, these factors have rarely altered the overall yearly cadence in the past. Upcoming developer conferences and earnings updates may provide further confirmation, but current sentiment reflects strong confidence in the typical September window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$105,072Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently announced in September, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this pattern as highly reliable based on decades of precedent, ongoing supply-chain stability, and the absence of any official signals pointing to a skipped or delayed cycle. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, manufacturing challenges, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets could still shift timelines, these factors have rarely altered the overall yearly cadence in the past. Upcoming developer conferences and earnings updates may provide further confirmation, but current sentiment reflects strong confidence in the typical September window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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