Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual iPhone launches, with new models typically announced in September and available by year-end, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports and consistent historical timing reinforce trader expectations that at least premium variants in the lineup will reach consumers before December, even amid a split-release approach favoring higher-end devices this fall. While this creates strong implied probability, realistic risks remain, including further delays from manufacturing constraints on advanced components like 2nm chips, unexpected regulatory hurdles, or shifts in Apple’s strategy that could push the base model into early 2027.