Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's April 18 outlook showing zero potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid absent disturbances, high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air inhibiting organization. Current sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below peak-season norms, with Colorado State University's April forecast anticipating below-normal 2026 activity due to a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño, which boosts disruptive shear. Historically, pre-June 1 hurricanes are exceedingly rare, occurring only a handful of times since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from an unexpected late-May tropical wave rapidly intensifying or a subtropical system upgrading, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSi formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Si formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$42,767 Vol.
$42,767 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$42,767 Vol.
$42,767 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's April 18 outlook showing zero potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid absent disturbances, high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air inhibiting organization. Current sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below peak-season norms, with Colorado State University's April forecast anticipating below-normal 2026 activity due to a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño, which boosts disruptive shear. Historically, pre-June 1 hurricanes are exceedingly rare, occurring only a handful of times since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from an unexpected late-May tropical wave rapidly intensifying or a subtropical system upgrading, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$42,767Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's April 18 outlook showing zero potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid absent disturbances, high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air inhibiting organization. Current sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below peak-season norms, with Colorado State University's April forecast anticipating below-normal 2026 activity due to a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño, which boosts disruptive shear. Historically, pre-June 1 hurricanes are exceedingly rare, occurring only a handful of times since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from an unexpected late-May tropical wave rapidly intensifying or a subtropical system upgrading, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$42,767Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's April 18 outlook showing zero potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid absent disturbances, high vertical wind shear, and dry Saharan air inhibiting organization. Current sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below peak-season norms, with Colorado State University's April forecast anticipating below-normal 2026 activity due to a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño, which boosts disruptive shear. Historically, pre-June 1 hurricanes are exceedingly rare, occurring only a handful of times since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from an unexpected late-May tropical wave rapidly intensifying or a subtropical system upgrading, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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