The National Hurricane Center’s daily Tropical Weather Outlooks, which resumed on May 15, show no tropical disturbances or favorable conditions for development across the Atlantic basin through at least the next seven days, consistent with the climatological rarity of pre-June hurricanes. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the thresholds typically needed for rapid intensification this early in the calendar, while steering patterns and wind shear further suppress genesis. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate overall below-average activity for 2026, reinforcing the low probability of an out-of-season system forming before May 31. Traders therefore assign a 96.7 percent implied probability to “No,” with any shift hinging on an unexpected late-May wave or model consensus change in the final two weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSi formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Si formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$50,663 Vol.
$50,663 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$50,663 Vol.
$50,663 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center’s daily Tropical Weather Outlooks, which resumed on May 15, show no tropical disturbances or favorable conditions for development across the Atlantic basin through at least the next seven days, consistent with the climatological rarity of pre-June hurricanes. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the thresholds typically needed for rapid intensification this early in the calendar, while steering patterns and wind shear further suppress genesis. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate overall below-average activity for 2026, reinforcing the low probability of an out-of-season system forming before May 31. Traders therefore assign a 96.7 percent implied probability to “No,” with any shift hinging on an unexpected late-May wave or model consensus change in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$50,663Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center’s daily Tropical Weather Outlooks, which resumed on May 15, show no tropical disturbances or favorable conditions for development across the Atlantic basin through at least the next seven days, consistent with the climatological rarity of pre-June hurricanes. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the thresholds typically needed for rapid intensification this early in the calendar, while steering patterns and wind shear further suppress genesis. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate overall below-average activity for 2026, reinforcing the low probability of an out-of-season system forming before May 31. Traders therefore assign a 96.7 percent implied probability to “No,” with any shift hinging on an unexpected late-May wave or model consensus change in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$50,663Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center’s daily Tropical Weather Outlooks, which resumed on May 15, show no tropical disturbances or favorable conditions for development across the Atlantic basin through at least the next seven days, consistent with the climatological rarity of pre-June hurricanes. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the thresholds typically needed for rapid intensification this early in the calendar, while steering patterns and wind shear further suppress genesis. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate overall below-average activity for 2026, reinforcing the low probability of an out-of-season system forming before May 31. Traders therefore assign a 96.7 percent implied probability to “No,” with any shift hinging on an unexpected late-May wave or model consensus change in the final two weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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