Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.6% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or areas of development potential through late April, with routine issuance resuming May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures across the main development region linger below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis, while strong vertical wind shear continues to disrupt organization. Historical data underscores rarity—fewer than 10 such pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid SST warming or a rogue low-pressure system evading shear, though models indicate low likelihood ahead of seasonal onset June 1.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSi formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Si formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$42,783 Vol.
$42,783 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$42,783 Vol.
$42,783 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.6% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or areas of development potential through late April, with routine issuance resuming May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures across the main development region linger below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis, while strong vertical wind shear continues to disrupt organization. Historical data underscores rarity—fewer than 10 such pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid SST warming or a rogue low-pressure system evading shear, though models indicate low likelihood ahead of seasonal onset June 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$42,783Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.6% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or areas of development potential through late April, with routine issuance resuming May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures across the main development region linger below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis, while strong vertical wind shear continues to disrupt organization. Historical data underscores rarity—fewer than 10 such pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid SST warming or a rogue low-pressure system evading shear, though models indicate low likelihood ahead of seasonal onset June 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$42,783Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.6% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook showing no active tropical cyclones or areas of development potential through late April, with routine issuance resuming May 15. Cool sea surface temperatures across the main development region linger below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis, while strong vertical wind shear continues to disrupt organization. Historical data underscores rarity—fewer than 10 such pre-June 1 hurricanes since 1851. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid SST warming or a rogue low-pressure system evading shear, though models indicate low likelihood ahead of seasonal onset June 1.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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