The overwhelming trader consensus against hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the climatological reality of the Atlantic basin in late May, where the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones present and no development expected over the next seven days. Official season onset occurs June 1, with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric steering patterns not yet primed for cyclogenesis; historical records show the first named storm typically emerges around June 20 on average. While an exceptionally rare early system remains theoretically possible given model uncertainty, current observational data and seasonal baselines strongly support the near-certain outcome ahead of the first June Tropical Weather Outlook updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSi formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Si formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$51,580 Vol.
$51,580 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$51,580 Vol.
$51,580 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The overwhelming trader consensus against hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the climatological reality of the Atlantic basin in late May, where the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones present and no development expected over the next seven days. Official season onset occurs June 1, with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric steering patterns not yet primed for cyclogenesis; historical records show the first named storm typically emerges around June 20 on average. While an exceptionally rare early system remains theoretically possible given model uncertainty, current observational data and seasonal baselines strongly support the near-certain outcome ahead of the first June Tropical Weather Outlook updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$51,580Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The overwhelming trader consensus against hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the climatological reality of the Atlantic basin in late May, where the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones present and no development expected over the next seven days. Official season onset occurs June 1, with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric steering patterns not yet primed for cyclogenesis; historical records show the first named storm typically emerges around June 20 on average. While an exceptionally rare early system remains theoretically possible given model uncertainty, current observational data and seasonal baselines strongly support the near-certain outcome ahead of the first June Tropical Weather Outlook updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$51,580Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming trader consensus against hurricane formation by May 31 reflects the climatological reality of the Atlantic basin in late May, where the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones present and no development expected over the next seven days. Official season onset occurs June 1, with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric steering patterns not yet primed for cyclogenesis; historical records show the first named storm typically emerges around June 20 on average. While an exceptionally rare early system remains theoretically possible given model uncertainty, current observational data and seasonal baselines strongly support the near-certain outcome ahead of the first June Tropical Weather Outlook updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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