With the Atlantic hurricane season's official start still nearly two weeks away on June 1, current sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear patterns remain well below the thresholds needed for tropical cyclone development, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability of no hurricane forming by May 31. Historical records from the National Hurricane Center show only a handful of pre-season hurricanes in the past century, typically limited to the Gulf of Mexico under rare warm-water anomalies. Traders are pricing in the low climatological baseline for May formation, with no active disturbances or favorable steering patterns observed in recent satellite data. A sudden shift could occur if an unusually strong tropical wave encounters anomalously warm waters, though forecasters note such alignment would require rapid changes not currently supported by models.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSi formerà un uragano entro il 31 maggio?
Sì
$51,119 Vol.
$51,119 Vol.
Sì
$51,119 Vol.
$51,119 Vol.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...With the Atlantic hurricane season's official start still nearly two weeks away on June 1, current sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear patterns remain well below the thresholds needed for tropical cyclone development, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability of no hurricane forming by May 31. Historical records from the National Hurricane Center show only a handful of pre-season hurricanes in the past century, typically limited to the Gulf of Mexico under rare warm-water anomalies. Traders are pricing in the low climatological baseline for May formation, with no active disturbances or favorable steering patterns observed in recent satellite data. A sudden shift could occur if an unusually strong tropical wave encounters anomalously warm waters, though forecasters note such alignment would require rapid changes not currently supported by models.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti