Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June 2026 after more than 100 days of conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes in February. The 14-point framework extends the existing ceasefire for 60 days, commits Iran to forgo nuclear weapons, outlines sanctions relief and oil export waivers tied to further progress, and schedules reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with formal signing expected shortly in Geneva. Nuclear enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund remain deferred for the next negotiation round. President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have been central signatories to the initial document, while mediators from Pakistan and Qatar facilitated talks. The 60-day window ending around mid-August creates a clear timeline for any comprehensive follow-on agreement before the market resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani praised for mediation role in U.S.-Iran peace agreement
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 1%1%
Qatar's Emir received congratulations for his mediation efforts in the U.S.-Iran peace talks, highlighting Qatar's role as a key mediator. However, this did not translate into increased market confidence for him as a signatory, reflecting the complex diplomatic environment.
Interim U.S.-Iran deal falters amid renewed fighting and sanctions reversals
Despite the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum, fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensified, and key provisions such as sanctions waivers were revoked. This undermined confidence in the deal's durability and the likelihood of any listed individual signing a final agreement, causing market prices for all options to plummet.
Death of Qatar's former Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani during mourning period
The passing of former Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, who had influence in regional diplomacy including mediation in the US-Iran deal, occurred during the analysis window but did not affect the signing market directly; his son Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani's market price remained low.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi visits Oman for talks on bilateral relations and Strait of Hormuz
Abbas Araghchi dips to 2%1%
Araghchi led a diplomatic delegation to Oman to discuss bilateral relations and regional developments, including the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, a U.S. delegation led by Steve Witkoff met with Qatari officials, including Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, highlighting ongoing but cautious diplomatic engagement. Market prices remained low, indicating limited confidence in a deal signing.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warns Iran of strikes amid stalled negotiations
Pete Hegseth dips to 1%1%
Pete Hegseth issued warnings of military strikes against Iran if a deal was not reached, reflecting escalating tensions and undermining prospects for a peaceful signing by any listed individual. This contributed to the market's collapse in confidence for Hegseth and others as signatories.
Analysis highlights key players in U.S.-Iran crisis including Khamenei, Rubio, and Gulf mediators
Marco Rubio plunges to 2%18%
A detailed report outlined the hardline stances of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as the roles of Gulf mediators like Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Mohammed bin Salman. The report emphasized the narrow diplomatic path and internal political complexities, which likely contributed to the market's sharp decline in the probability of any deal signing by these individuals.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refuses to negotiate final deal amid US threats
Abbas Araghchi dips to 2%1%
Araghchi publicly stated that Iran would not negotiate the final deal if US threats continued, following President Trump's warning to 'finish the job' if no deal was reached. This hardened stance likely contributed to the decline in market confidence for Araghchi as signatory.
Iran's Abbas Araghchi refuses final US deal talks if threats continue
Araghchi publicly stated that final negotiations with the US would not proceed if threats persisted, citing the interim MoU, which further diminished his market probability as a signatory.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warns Israel against undermining U.S.-Iran peace deal
Recep Tayyip Erdogan dips to 1%1%
On July 4, 2026, President Erdogan publicly warned that Israel must not be allowed to 'dynamite' the U.S.-Iran peace deal, emphasizing the importance of regional cooperation for lasting peace. Erdogan’s statements highlighted regional tensions and the fragility of the agreement, impacting market confidence in Erdogan as a signatory.
Turkish President Erdogan urges Israel not to undermine US-Iran deal
Recep Tayyip Erdogan drops to 1%11%
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly supported the US-Iran memorandum and warned against Israeli attempts to sabotage the deal, reinforcing his low market price as a signatory was unlikely.
Turkish President Erdogan urges regional support for US-Iran peace deal
Erdogan emphasized the importance of regional backing for the US-Iran deal and condemned Israeli attempts to undermine it, maintaining his low market probability as a signatory.
US and Iran resume technical talks in Doha amid ongoing mediation
Indirect technical talks between US and Iranian officials continued in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, but no direct high-level meetings occurred. This prolonged negotiation phase without clear progress contributed to market skepticism about any listed individual signing the deal.
US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold positive talks in Qatar on Iran deal
Witkoff and Kushner held positive discussions with regional leaders and made progress on technical talks with Iran, indicating ongoing efforts to turn the interim peace deal into a permanent end to the war. This helped stabilize market perceptions of their role in the deal.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and French President Macron discuss Iran-US deal and regional stability
Mohammed bin Salman rises to 2%1%
On July 1, 2026, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the U.S.-Iran memorandum and regional stability, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement and influencing market perceptions of the deal’s regional impact.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators meet separately in Qatar, report positive progress
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani rises to 2%1%
On July 1, 2026, U.S. and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, reporting positive progress on the memorandum of understanding, but no indication that the listed individuals signed the deal, keeping their market probabilities low.
US and Iranian negotiators hold separate meetings in Qatar, agree to continue discussions
US and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, reporting positive progress and agreeing to continue talks. This indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement but no signing event by any individual was confirmed.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Qatar for Iran talks amid tensions
Steve Witkoff dips to 1%2%
On June 30, 2026, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Qatar for talks with mediators on implementing the initial deal with Iran, continuing the diplomatic process without the listed individuals signing, which maintained low market confidence in their signing.
Marco Rubio admits Iran deal is worse than Obama’s during congressional briefing
Marco Rubio drops to 2%11%
During a congressional briefing, Marco Rubio expressed skepticism about the new peace deal's quality compared to the 2015 JCPOA, reflecting internal US administration divisions and impacting market sentiment on his likelihood to sign.
US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold positive talks in Doha on Iran deal
Steve Witkoff dips to 1%2%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner engaged in discussions with Qatari mediators and regional leaders, signaling progress in technical talks with Iran. However, they did not meet directly with Iranian officials, and later reports suggested their involvement was controversial, affecting market confidence in their signing prospects.
US and Iranian delegations hold separate meetings in Qatar, agree to continue talks
On June 30, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, making positive progress and agreeing to continue discussions. The meetings focused on technical implementation of the interim deal, but no direct US-Iran talks occurred, reflecting ongoing diplomatic complexity and low market confidence for all signatories.
Congressional briefing on U.S.-Iran deal by Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff
On June 30, 2026, Rubio and Witkoff briefed U.S. lawmakers on the Iran deal, addressing concerns about compliance and enforcement, which influenced market sentiment about the deal's prospects and implementation.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Qatar for Iran talks
Steve Witkoff dips to 2%1%
US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Qatar to meet with mediators for talks on implementing the initial deal to end the war with Iran. Their involvement underscored the US commitment to diplomacy, but no direct signing by them was reported.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Doha for high-level meetings on Iran deal
Steve Witkoff dips to 1%2%
On June 29, 2026, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Doha for high-level meetings with mediators regarding the memorandum of understanding with Iran, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to finalize the agreement.
US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hold talks in Doha on Iran deal
Steve Witkoff dips to 3%4%
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner held positive discussions in Doha to advance the Iran deal, confirming their active roles but not as signatories, which kept their market prices low.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff brief Congress on Iran deal
Marco Rubio dips to 2%4%
Rubio and Witkoff held congressional briefings to explain the memorandum of understanding and ongoing negotiations with Iran, addressing lawmakers' concerns about sanctions relief and nuclear issues. This event reflected political scrutiny and affected market perceptions of their roles as signatories.
U.S. officials Rubio and Witkoff brief Congress on Iran deal progress and challenges
Marco Rubio dips to 1%2%
On June 29, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff briefed U.S. Congress on the Iran deal, addressing concerns about Iran’s compliance and the deal’s terms, which influenced market sentiment and reflected ongoing uncertainty about final signatories.
US envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Doha for Iran talks amid tensions
Steve Witkoff dips to 3%4%
Steve Witkoff, US special envoy to the Middle East, traveled to Doha on June 29, 2026, to engage in talks with mediators about implementing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. This diplomatic activity was part of ongoing efforts to finalize the deal, but tensions and attacks in the region kept market confidence low for Witkoff as a signatory.
Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff brief U.S. Congress on Iran deal progress
Marco Rubio dips to 2%1%
On June 29, 2026, Rubio and Witkoff briefed U.S. lawmakers on the Iran deal, addressing concerns about compliance and enforcement, which influenced market sentiment about the deal's prospects and implementation, slightly affecting their market prices.
US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff lead peace talks in Doha after weekend strikes
Following renewed hostilities, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Qatar for high-level meetings regarding the memorandum of understanding, aiming to advance the peace process. Their involvement signaled continued US commitment to the deal despite challenges, affecting market confidence in their signing likelihood.
Al Jazeera analysis calls US-Iran MoU a strategic pause, not a peace treaty
An opinion piece by Adolfo Franco highlighted that the US-Iran MoU is a tactical intermission rather than a lasting peace agreement, reflecting mutual recognition that Iran will not fully comply with constraints. This perspective underscores the market's skepticism about the deal's long-term effectiveness.
King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain and Sultan Haitham bin Tariq of Oman discuss regional stability and maritime security
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa plunges to 2%18%
A phone call between Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq emphasized the importance of maritime navigation freedom in the Strait of Hormuz and regional stability. This diplomatic communication underscored ongoing Gulf efforts to manage tensions but did not directly advance a U.S.-Iran deal, contributing to declining market confidence in Bahrain's king signing the deal.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework agreement after US-brokered talks
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement following US mediation, aiming to consolidate a ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah was not party to the agreement, and fighting continued, reflecting ongoing regional instability that complicates the US-Iran deal's broader peace prospects.
President Trump states Iranian regime violated ceasefire with drone attack on Strait of Hormuz
On June 26, President Trump announced that Iran fired drones at the Strait of Hormuz, violating the temporary ceasefire extension. This escalated tensions and decreased market confidence in the deal's finalization and signatories' involvement.
Iran agrees to UN nuclear inspectors’ return as part of US agreement
Abbas Araghchi dips to 6%1%
Iran agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country as part of the agreement with the US, a major step in the nuclear talks. This development was seen as progress in the negotiations but did not indicate a signing by any specific individual.
Iran’s top negotiator Ghalibaf to attend U.S.–Iran deal signing in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 33%63%
Naharnet reported that Ghalibaf would attend the signing ceremony in Switzerland, naming U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance as the American signatory. This raised his odds again, pushing the price to 33 % before another decline as the signing was delayed.
US conducts strikes on Iranian targets after cargo ship attack in Strait of Hormuz
Following a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military struck Iranian missile and drone storage facilities, accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire. Iran retaliated with strikes on US-linked targets. This escalation raised doubts about the ceasefire's durability and negatively impacted market confidence in the deal.
IAEA confirms US-Iran peace deal grants access to Tehran's nuclear sites
Abbas Araghchi dips to 6%1%
The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding includes provisions for nuclear inspections in Iran, a key element of the deal affecting market confidence in Iranian officials' roles.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discusses U.S.-Iran deal with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan plunges to 1%45%
Marco Rubio met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed to discuss the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and regional security. This diplomatic engagement underscored the UAE's support for the deal but did not indicate any signing role, reflected in the low market probability for Mohamed bin Zayed as a signatory.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf denies plans to use unfrozen assets for US agricultural goods
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 6%6%
Ghalibaf publicly dismissed US claims about Iran's use of unfrozen assets, reflecting ongoing mistrust and internal political tensions, which contributed to his declining market price as a signatory.
Marco Rubio tours Gulf allies to reassure on Iran deal and security
Marco Rubio plunges to 13%33%
Marco Rubio visited Gulf Cooperation Council states in late June 2026 to reassure allies about the US commitment to their security and the Iran ceasefire deal. He emphasized that Iran would not be allowed to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, addressing regional concerns and influencing market perceptions of Rubio's role in the deal.
Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calls deal a declaration of America’s defeat
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 6%6%
On June 24, 2026, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf described the Islamabad Memorandum as a declaration of America’s defeat, emphasizing Iran’s resistance and authority, which underscored Iran’s strong stance and affected market confidence in his signing likelihood.
Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff brief Congress on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio drops to 3%10%
Rubio and Witkoff held congressional briefings explaining the US-Iran memorandum, confirming their key roles in the deal process but not as signatories, leading to low market probabilities for Witkoff and Rubio as signers.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassures Gulf allies on U.S.-Iran peace deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 2%44%
On June 25, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Gulf leaders, including Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, to reassure them about the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and regional security. Rubio’s diplomatic efforts aimed to maintain Gulf support amid concerns about the deal, influencing market perceptions of Rubio’s role.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Bahrain King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to discuss US-Iran deal
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa plunges to 2%44%
Marco Rubio met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain to reaffirm US commitment to Bahrain's security and discuss regional stability and the US-Iran agreement. Despite this diplomatic engagement, market confidence in Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa as a signatory remained very low.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discusses US-Iran deal with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan drops to 1%7%
Marco Rubio met with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed to discuss the US-Iran memorandum and regional security, signaling UAE's support but no signing role, reflected in the market price falling to near zero.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff brief Congress on Iran deal
Marco Rubio dips to 2%1%
Rubio and Witkoff briefed Congress on the interim US-Iran deal, confirming the 60-day negotiation framework and addressing sanctions relief and nuclear program issues, but neither was expected to sign the final agreement.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigns from negotiating team
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 35%26%
Ghalibaf resigned from the Iranian negotiating team due to internal disagreements, signaling a shift toward hardliners and reducing the likelihood of his signing the deal. This event caused a sharp drop in market confidence for Ghalibaf's signing probability.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterates hope for lasting stability from Iran-US deal
Mohammed bin Salman drops to 2%7%
Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the Iran-US memorandum again, expressing hope for regional stability and reduced tensions, but did not sign the deal, keeping his market price low.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassures Gulf allies on Iran deal
Marco Rubio dips to 3%3%
Marco Rubio toured Gulf countries in late June 2026 to reassure allies about the U.S.-Iran deal, emphasizing that no tolls would be allowed in the Strait of Hormuz and that the U.S. remains committed to regional security. His diplomatic efforts maintained his market presence as a potential signatory, though confidence was low.
Iran's chief negotiator calls U.S.-Iran deal a 'declaration of America's defeat'
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 12%6%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly praised the Islamabad Memorandum as a victory for Iran, framing it as a result of Iranian resistance rather than coercion. This statement reinforced his central role in the deal but also highlighted the contentious nature of the agreement, contributing to market uncertainty.
Turkish President Erdogan warns Israel against undermining US-Iran deal
Recep Tayyip Erdogan plunges to 13%32%
Erdogan publicly supported the US-Iran agreement and accused Israel of attempting to sabotage it, briefly influencing market perceptions of Erdogan's involvement.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff meets with mediators ahead of Iran talks in Qatar
Steve Witkoff dips to 13%4%
Steve Witkoff, U.S. special envoy, met with mediators in late June 2026 as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to finalize the U.S.-Iran deal, indicating continued negotiations without the listed individuals signing, which kept their market probabilities low.
Iran’s chief negotiator Ghalibaf calls US-Iran deal a declaration of America’s defeat
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 9%8%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly described the signed deal as a declaration of America’s defeat, emphasizing Iran’s resistance and authority. This statement reinforced his central role in the negotiations and the legitimacy of the agreement, supporting his market position.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warns Israel against undermining U.S.-Iran deal
On June 24, 2026, Erdogan accused Israel of attempting to sabotage the U.S.-Iran agreement, emphasizing the need for regional stability and diplomatic efforts, which influenced market perceptions of the deal's durability.
Kuwaiti Emir meets U.S. Secretary of State Rubio in Abu Dhabi
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah plunges to 10%35%
Kuwait’s Emir Mishal met with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing Kuwait’s interest in the deal; the market’s confidence in him decreased as the focus shifted to other signatories.
Iranian FM Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf hold talks in Oman on Iran-US MoU
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 17%34%
Araghchi and Ghalibaf visited Oman for official discussions with Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Albusaidi, focusing on cooperation and the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, including the Strait of Hormuz security. Despite constructive talks, market prices for both individuals dropped sharply, reflecting skepticism about a signed deal.
Marco Rubio tours Gulf states, rejects Iranian tolls on Strait of Hormuz
Marco Rubio plunges to 3%43%
On June 23, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a diplomatic tour of Gulf countries, emphasizing that no country, including Iran, would be allowed to charge tolls for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. His firm stance aimed to reassure U.S. allies but coincided with his declining market price due to skepticism about the deal and his relative silence on the agreement.
UN nuclear chief confirms IAEA inspections in Iran under war deal
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that nuclear inspections will take place in Iran under the preliminary peace agreement, though Iran's deputy foreign minister stated such access would only be part of a final deal. This mixed messaging contributed to market uncertainty about the deal's implementation.
Dispute arises over nuclear inspections in U.S.-Iran talks
On June 23, 2026, conflicting statements emerged about Iran’s agreement to allow U.N. nuclear inspectors to visit bombed sites, causing uncertainty in ongoing negotiations. This dispute affected market confidence in the signatories, especially Abbas Araghchi and Steve Witkoff, involved in technical talks.
Marco Rubio tours Gulf allies to reassure on US-Iran deal
Rubio visited Gulf countries to reassure allies about the US-Iran memorandum, emphasizing security commitments. This diplomatic activity maintained his market price but did not increase likelihood of him signing the deal.
Dispute arises over nuclear inspections in US-Iran talks
Abbas Araghchi drops to 7%5%
On June 23, 2026, a public dispute emerged between the US and Iran over whether Iran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors to visit bombed nuclear sites. This disagreement created uncertainty in the market, contributing to a decline in confidence for Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as signatories.
Iran confirms Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to attend US-Iran deal signing in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 18%6%
On June 23, 2026, Iranian officials confirmed that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator, would attend the signing ceremony of the US-Iran deal in Switzerland. This official confirmation briefly increased market confidence in Ghalibaf signing the deal, though overall confidence remained low due to ongoing uncertainties.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf meets with Omani officials on Strait of Hormuz management
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dips to 16%3%
On June 23, Ghalibaf met with Omani officials to discuss joint Iranian-Omani management of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing commitment to the MoU clauses. This diplomatic engagement highlighted ongoing negotiations about strategic issues and influenced market views on Ghalibaf's involvement.
Dispute arises over Iran's agreement to allow UN inspectors at bombed nuclear sites
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 11%24%
A public dispute emerged between the U.S. and Iran over whether Tehran had agreed to allow UN inspectors to visit nuclear sites damaged in previous strikes. This disagreement highlighted ongoing mistrust and complicated finalizing the deal, contributing to low market confidence in signatories like Ghalibaf and Khamenei.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefs Congress on U.S.–Iran memorandum
Marco Rubio plunges to 2%44%
Rubio briefed Congress on the memorandum, stressing U.S. commitment to a toll‑free Strait of Hormuz. The briefing lowered his odds dramatically to 2 % as lawmakers questioned the deal’s substance.
Qatar’s Emir Tamim assures toll‑free Hormuz at G7 side meeting
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani surges to 43%41%
Qatar’s Emir Tamim attended a G7 side meeting on the Iran cease‑fire and was quoted saying the Strait of Hormuz must stay toll‑free, leading to a temporary price increase to 43 % before the market corrected.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Gulf to reassure allies on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 3%17%
Marco Rubio visited Gulf allies including Bahrain to reassure them about the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, emphasizing US commitment to regional security and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which affected market perceptions of Rubio's role.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reports major progress in US talks to end Lebanon war
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 6%39%
Araghchi announced significant progress in talks with the US, including ceasefire and sanctions discussions, which affected market confidence in his involvement in the deal, though his signing probability remained low at 6%.
Iran agrees to allow UN nuclear inspectors as part of US-Iran agreement
Abbas Araghchi dips to 3%4%
Iran agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country under the agreement, a major step toward nuclear transparency. This was confirmed by US Vice President JD Vance and IAEA chief Rafael Grossi. The development was significant for the market's outlook on the deal's implementation.
U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran
Abbas Araghchi dips to 6%1%
On June 22, 2026, the U.S. Treasury issued a 60-day exemption allowing Iran to produce and sell oil, signaling progress in the implementation of the MoU and reinforcing the market's view that the deal was moving forward without the listed individuals signing.
Marco Rubio tours Gulf to reassure allies on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 13%33%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Gulf allies to address their security concerns about the US-Iran memorandum, slightly supporting his market position as a potential signatory.
US and Iran agree on roadmap towards final deal in Switzerland talks
US special envoy Steve Witkoff, Vice President JD Vance, and Pakistani officials met in Switzerland to advance negotiations, confirming ongoing diplomatic efforts but no new signatories, maintaining low market prices for other candidates.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Gulf allies to discuss Iran deal amid regional concerns
Marco Rubio dips to 3%2%
Starting June 22, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and regional security issues, including safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This visit aimed to reassure Gulf allies concerned about the deal's provisions, such as the proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and the lack of missile restrictions, reflecting ongoing regional diplomatic efforts.
U.S. and Iran agree on roadmap towards final deal in Switzerland talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%19%
On June 22, 2026, U.S. and Iranian negotiators, including U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian representatives, met in Switzerland to discuss the technical details of implementing the signed memorandum, maintaining market interest in Witkoff as a potential signatory despite low final price.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Reassures Gulf Allies on U.S.-Iran Deal Details
Rubio toured Gulf countries to reassure allies about the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, emphasizing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. commitment to regional security, which influenced market perceptions of his involvement and the deal's stability.
First round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland ends with encouraging progress, mediators say
Negotiations between US Vice-President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators concluded with mediators Qatar and Pakistan reporting encouraging progress and a roadmap to a final deal within 60 days. This raised some market optimism but also highlighted the complexity ahead.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirms digital signing of U.S.–Iran MOU
Vice President JD Vance publicly announced the digital signing of the memorandum by U.S. and Iranian representatives, confirming the agreement’s existence and collapsing the market’s expectations for many other individuals.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expresses support for U.S.-Iran agreement
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 4%42%
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding in a phone call with Pakistan's Prime Minister, expressing hope for lasting stability and reduced regional tensions. Despite his support, market probability for him signing the deal dropped sharply, reflecting his non-involvement as a signatory.
U.S. and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal in Switzerland talks
On June 21, 2026, U.S. and Iranian negotiators, including Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi, agreed on a roadmap towards a final deal and established mechanisms to end military operations in Lebanon. This progress maintained market interest in Witkoff and Araghchi as potential signatories but did not clarify the actual signatory.
US and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal at Switzerland talks
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rises to 19%2%
On June 21, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials agreed on a roadmap towards a lasting deal within 60 days during talks in Switzerland. The agreement included establishing committees on nuclear monitoring, sanctions, and dispute resolution, boosting market confidence in the chief negotiators, especially Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
UAE President calls Iranian President to discuss cease‑fire
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan plunges to 5%41%
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed called the Iranian President on the phone, reaffirming UAE support for the cease‑fire, but his odds fell as the market saw other actors taking the signing lead.
First round of U.S.-Iran talks conclude with progress on Lebanon and Hormuz
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 7%38%
High-level talks in Switzerland on June 21, 2026, led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, resulted in a roadmap for a final deal within 60 days and the establishment of a de-confliction cell for Lebanon. This maintained market interest in Ghalibaf and Araghchi as signatories.
US and Iran agree on roadmap towards final deal in Switzerland talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%42%
On June 21, 2026, US and Iranian delegations, including US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian officials, met in Switzerland and agreed on a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. The talks included establishing communication lines to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and mechanisms to end fighting in Lebanon. This event influenced market prices by clarifying the negotiation progress and roles of key figures.
First round of US-Iran talks concludes in Switzerland with progress on final deal roadmap
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rises to 19%1%
On June 21, 2026, the first round of high-level negotiations between the US and Iran concluded in Switzerland with both sides agreeing on a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. The talks included establishing communication lines to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and frameworks to end military operations in Lebanon. Despite progress, tensions remained due to ongoing fighting in Lebanon and renewed threats from US President Trump, impacting market sentiment.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff heads to Switzerland for potential Iran talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 2%43%
U.S. officials announced a high‑level meeting in Switzerland with Witkoff and Kushner to finalise the technical annexes of the MOU. Market confidence in Witkoff fell to 2 % as the meeting was postponed.
Araghchi says ‘major progress’ after first Switzerland talks
Abbas Araghchi dips to 7%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that “major progress” was made after the first round of talks in Switzerland, briefly raising his odds before the market slid again.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approves U.S.-Iran deal framework with reservations
Mojtaba Khamenei plunges to 14%32%
On June 20, 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Supreme Leader, publicly approved the framework agreement with the United States despite expressing principled disagreements. His approval was crucial for the deal's legitimacy but his reservations and absence from public view fueled uncertainty about the deal's future.
Kuwaiti Emir Mishal meets U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on Iran deal
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah surges to 45%43%
Kuwait’s Emir Mishal met Secretary of State Rubio in Manama to discuss the deal’s impact on Kuwait’s security, causing a brief rise to 45 % before the market settled back to low levels.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran agreement
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 2%44%
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, expressing hope for lasting regional stability. Despite this diplomatic support, market confidence in him as a signatory remained very low, indicating limited belief he would sign the deal.
US envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for potential Iran nuclear talks
Steve Witkoff rises to 14%4%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Switzerland to prepare for potential nuclear talks with Iran, signaling active US diplomatic engagement. This raised market expectations for progress but did not confirm any signing by Witkoff or others.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for nuclear talks with Iran
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%23%
Special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Switzerland on June 20, 2026, to participate in technical talks aimed at implementing the terms of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. His involvement kept market interest in him as a potential signatory, though confidence remained low.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Switzerland for postponed Iran talks
Steve Witkoff jumps to 16%8%
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Switzerland to resume negotiations aimed at finalizing a peace deal with Iran after earlier talks were postponed. This move signaled renewed diplomatic efforts but market confidence in Witkoff signing the deal remained low due to ongoing complexities.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran peace agreement
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 14%32%
On June 19, 2026, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the U.S.-Iran agreement and praised Pakistan's mediation efforts, signaling regional support and impacting market perceptions of the deal's viability.
Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff brief Republicans on Iran deal progress
Steve Witkoff plunges to 1%44%
Following the signing of the memorandum, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff briefed skeptical Republican leaders to reassure them about the deal's terms and the negotiation process. Despite these efforts, market confidence in Witkoff as a signatory remained very low, reflecting ongoing doubts about the deal's success.
US envoy Steve Witkoff heads to Switzerland for Iran nuclear talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 5%40%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Switzerland to participate in nuclear negotiations with Iran, indicating the US commitment to the ongoing peace process. Market confidence in Witkoff as a signatory remained very low.
Formal signing ceremony of US-Iran peace agreement held in Geneva
On June 19, 2026, a formal signing ceremony for the US-Iran peace agreement took place in Geneva, attended by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, and other officials. This event confirmed Ghalibaf as a key signatory and solidified the deal's legitimacy, causing market confidence in him to peak.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to represent Iran at deal signing in Geneva
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 6%45%
Reports on June 19 indicated that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi would represent Iran at the formal signing of the agreement with the United States in Switzerland. This reinforced their central roles in the negotiation process and affected market perceptions of their likelihood to sign the deal.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for nuclear talks with Iran
Steve Witkoff drops to 17%9%
On June 19, 2026, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Switzerland for the first round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, indicating ongoing negotiations following the preliminary MOU. This maintained market interest in Witkoff as a potential signatory, though his market price remained low compared to Ghalibaf.
Kuwaiti Emir Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah holds talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah plunges to 1%44%
Kuwaiti Emir Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah engaged in discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on regional developments related to the US-Iran conflict. Despite this diplomatic activity, market confidence in Mishal as a signatory remained very low.
US and Iran to formally sign peace deal in Geneva on June 19
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rises to 19%2%
The formal signing ceremony of the US-Iran peace agreement was scheduled for June 19, 2026, in Geneva, Switzerland, with Pakistan hosting the event. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed his attendance, and there was speculation about President Trump's possible presence. Iranian officials indicated that either Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi might represent Iran. This event was a key milestone in the diplomatic process and influenced market expectations.
US envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for potential US-Iran nuclear talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%42%
Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, traveled to Switzerland for negotiations with Iran, indicating active US diplomatic engagement and affecting market pricing of his likelihood to sign the deal, which remained low at 3%.
Top Democrats demand briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 5%41%
Senior House Democrats demanded an immediate briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran, reflecting political scrutiny and skepticism. Rubio's market confidence as a signatory remained very low and declined during the period.
Iran's top negotiator Ghalibaf to attend signing of US deal in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 6%7%
Iranian deputy foreign minister confirmed that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf would attend the formal signing of the US-Iran deal in Switzerland, reinforcing his role as the Iranian signatory and further reducing market confidence in other signatories.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces congressional demand for briefing on Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 6%40%
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was requested by congressional Democrats to provide a detailed briefing on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, reflecting political scrutiny and affecting market perception of Rubio's role in the deal.
NPR profiles Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as Iran’s lead negotiator with the U.S.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rises to 96%4%
NPR and WKNO FM ran profiles of Ghalibaf as the lead Iranian negotiator, highlighting his central role and raising expectations of a signing. The market price peaked again at 96 % later that day.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calls U.S.-Iran deal a declaration of America’s defeat
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 3%93%
On June 24, 2026, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly described the deal with the U.S. as a declaration of America’s defeat, emphasizing Iran’s resistance and authority. This statement reflected hardline skepticism and contributed to declining market confidence in Ghalibaf as a signatory.
Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Confirmed to Attend Signing of U.S.-Iran Deal in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 50%42%
An Iranian deputy foreign minister confirmed that Ghalibaf would attend the signing ceremony in Switzerland, solidifying his role as the Iranian signatory and causing a sharp market price drop for his outcome as the deal was expected to be signed by him.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticizes US-Iran deal amid domestic backlash
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 3%11%
Benjamin Netanyahu faced widespread criticism in Israel over the US-Iran peace deal, which many viewed as a strategic failure. His low market confidence as a signatory reflects his political distancing from the agreement and opposition within Israel.
Rubio gives Iran deal the silent treatment at G7
Marco Rubio plunges to 2%44%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio remained silent at the G7 press conference, prompting market participants to view him as a less‑likely signatory; his odds fell from 46 % on 12 Jun to 2 % on 25 Jun.
Ghalibaf faces internal backlash and resigns from Iran negotiation team
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 17%10%
Reports emerged that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigned from the Iranian negotiation team due to internal disagreements, causing a sharp decline in his market price as doubts arose about his role in signing the deal.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi discusses Islamabad Memorandum with Kuwaiti counterpart
On June 18, 2026, Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with Kuwait's foreign minister to discuss the Islamabad Memorandum and regional developments, reinforcing diplomatic efforts following the signing and maintaining momentum in negotiations.
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff briefs US Congress on Iran deal details including nuclear inspections
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%42%
Witkoff revealed that Iran will invite the IAEA to inspect nuclear sites, indicating ongoing cooperation post-deal; his role as special envoy was critical but he was not a signatory, reflected in low market prices.
U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth praises Iran deal as born of American strength
Pete Hegseth plunges to 1%45%
Pete Hegseth stated that the deal ending the war with Iran was achieved through American military strength and emphasized verification of Iran's commitments. His statements reflected the administration's stance and affected market perceptions of his role, though his signing probability remained very low.
Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigns from U.S. talks amid internal disagreements
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 6%45%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, resigned from the negotiation team due to internal disputes over the inclusion of nuclear issues in talks. His departure signaled internal political challenges and reduced market confidence in him as the deal’s signatory.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei endorses face-to-face negotiations and approves MOU
Mojtaba Khamenei dips to 3%2%
On June 18, 2026, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly endorsed face-to-face negotiations with the U.S. and stated he approved the memorandum of understanding signed by Iranian and U.S. presidents. This endorsement was significant but did not translate into market confidence for Khamenei as a signatory due to his absence from public and ongoing health concerns.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani expresses support for peaceful solutions amid U.S.-Iran deal
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 9%36%
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani publicly supported diplomatic efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict peacefully, reflecting Qatar's role as a mediator and slightly influencing market confidence in Tamim as a signatory.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigns from negotiation team amid internal disagreements
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 14%17%
Reports emerged that Ghalibaf resigned due to internal disagreements over including the nuclear issue in talks, causing a sharp drop in his market probability as a signatory.
Qatar’s Emir discusses U.S.–Iran cease‑fire with French President
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 9%36%
Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani discussed the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire with French President Macron, indicating regional support but without direct involvement, leading to a modest decline in his odds.
Marco Rubio remains silent amid growing criticism of Iran deal
Secretary of State Marco Rubio maintained a low profile as criticism of the Iran deal intensified, signaling political caution. This sustained low market confidence in Rubio as a signatory.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff reveals Iran will invite UN nuclear inspectors under new deal
Steve Witkoff jumps to 14%11%
On June 18, 2026, US special envoy Steve Witkoff disclosed in a confidential briefing that Iran would invite the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear sites as part of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. This development indicated progress on nuclear oversight and boosted market confidence in Witkoff's role as a potential signatory, although his overall market price remained low.
Iran suspends commitments citing U.S. breaches of Islamabad Memorandum
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 16%69%
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced suspension of commitments related to the Islamabad Memorandum, citing alleged U.S. breaches. This announcement increased doubts about the deal's durability and contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for Ghalibaf and other signatories.
U.S. and Iran sign initial memorandum of understanding to end war
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 1%82%
President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, opening a 60-day negotiation period. The signing was reportedly done remotely with digital signatures, and the planned signing ceremony in Switzerland was canceled as the deal was considered already signed. This event confirmed the deal's existence and the signatories involved, impacting market prices.
Details of US-Iran agreement reveal unresolved core issues and $300bn reconstruction plan
US officials disclosed that the MoU commits Iran to downblending uranium under IAEA supervision but leaves many technical details and nuclear program issues unresolved. The US also plans a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran, which sparked criticism and political debate, affecting market confidence in the deal's durability.
Top Democrats demand briefing from Marco Rubio on U.S.-Iran deal details
Marco Rubio dips to 5%1%
Following the signing, U.S. lawmakers demanded detailed briefings from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding, reflecting political scrutiny and impacting market confidence in Rubio's role.
Democrats demand briefing from Marco Rubio on Iran deal details
Marco Rubio dips to 5%3%
Top Democratic lawmakers requested an immediate briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding with Iran, seeking details on sanctions relief, nuclear program, and enforcement. This scrutiny contributed to a further decline in Rubio's market price.
Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani supports diplomatic efforts in US-Iran conflict
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 1%44%
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar reaffirmed Qatar's support for peaceful solutions and diplomatic initiatives to contain the US-Iran conflict, emphasizing regional stability. This diplomatic backing did not translate into market confidence for him as a signatory, which remained very low.
Top Democrats demand Secretary of State Marco Rubio brief Congress on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 6%40%
On June 18, 2026, leading Democratic lawmakers demanded that Secretary of State Marco Rubio provide a detailed briefing to Congress on the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, reflecting political scrutiny and uncertainty about Rubio's role in the deal, which contributed to a decline in market confidence for Rubio as a signatory.
White House explores meeting to revive U.S.-Iran negotiations
Abbas Araghchi drops to 11%14%
The White House considered a meeting between envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to revive negotiations and prevent further conflict, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. This maintained market uncertainty for Araghchi as a signatory.
US President Donald Trump signs Iran peace deal at Palace of Versailles
Marco Rubio jumps to 11%5%
President Trump signed the US-Iran peace deal unexpectedly during a dinner at the Palace of Versailles, causing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to scramble for a printer. This event confirmed the formal signing and boosted market confidence in signatories associated with the US side.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expected in Geneva for signing
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%40%
Reports indicated that Ghalibaf and Araghchi were expected to travel to Geneva for the signing of the US-Iran agreement, with US Vice President JD Vance representing Washington. This raised market confidence in Ghalibaf as the signatory, reflected in a price peak.
U.S. President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian sign Islamabad Memorandum to end war
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 2%91%
On June 17, 2026, the U.S. and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, formalizing a ceasefire and a 60-day negotiation period for a final deal, with Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as key signatories, causing market prices for all options to plummet.
US and Iran sign initial memorandum of understanding to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in a ceremony mediated by Pakistan, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough. The deal included a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day negotiation window for a final agreement. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was the chief Iranian negotiator. This event caused a spike and then a sharp decline in Ghalibaf's market price as doubts about the deal's durability emerged.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed Congress on US-Iran MoU
Marco Rubio briefed Congress on the memorandum of understanding with Iran, confirming US involvement and his role in the diplomatic process, which affected his market price slightly but did not indicate he would sign the deal.
U.S. and Iran sign initial memorandum of understanding to end war and ease sanctions
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 37%55%
On June 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ease sanctions. This major diplomatic event caused a sharp drop in market confidence that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or others would sign the deal, as the signatories were the presidents, not the listed individuals.
US President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sign memorandum of understanding remotely
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 25%63%
The US and Iran officially signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump signing during a dinner with French President Macron and Pezeshkian signing in Tehran. This formalized the peace agreement and confirmed the deal's implementation phase.
Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sign US-Iran peace memorandum at Versailles
Marco Rubio plunges to 7%39%
President Trump signed the peace deal at the Palace of Versailles, handing the document to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while Iranian President Pezeshkian signed in Tehran, confirming the deal's execution.
Trump signs US-Iran memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 96%5%
President Donald Trump physically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at the Palace of Versailles, formalizing the preliminary peace deal and starting the 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This reinforced market confidence in Ghalibaf as the signatory.
US President Donald Trump signs US-Iran memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 96%52%
On June 17, 2026, President Donald Trump physically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at the Palace of Versailles, formalizing the preliminary peace deal and starting the 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This event was pivotal and caused a peak in market confidence for Ghalibaf.
Marco Rubio involved in Iran deal signing at Palace of Versailles
Marco Rubio drops to 8%11%
US President Donald Trump decided to sign the Iran deal immediately at the Palace of Versailles, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio involved in last-minute arrangements including finding a printer. Rubio's involvement was noted but he was not the primary signer, leading to a decline in his market price.
Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian digitally sign U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding
On June 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum remotely, formalizing the ceasefire extension and framework for further talks. This event confirmed progress but did not specify the individual signatory, affecting market prices for all candidates.
U.S. and Iran sign memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles, formalizing initial peace deal
On June 17, 2026, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding remotely, formalizing the initial peace deal. This included commitments to ceasefire on all fronts and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing was a key milestone but did not specify a single signatory, leading to market uncertainty and price declines.
Democrats demand briefing from Marco Rubio on US-Iran memorandum of understanding
On June 17, 2026, top Democrats in Congress requested an immediate briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, seeking details on sanctions relief, nuclear program plans, and enforcement mechanisms. This political scrutiny contributed to market uncertainty about Rubio's involvement as a signatory.
President Trump physically signs Islamabad Memorandum with Iran's Ghalibaf at Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 96%6%
On June 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump physically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at the Palace of Versailles, formalizing the preliminary peace deal and starting the 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This event caused a surge in market confidence for Ghalibaf as the lead Iranian signatory.
Trump signs US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding at Palace of Versailles
US President Donald Trump signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the Palace of Versailles, officially marking the ceasefire and framework for further negotiations. This event was a critical milestone that initially raised market optimism about the deal's prospects.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani discusses US-Iran ceasefire and regional stability with French President Macron
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 8%37%
Sheikh Tamim's diplomatic engagement and mediation efforts were recognized as important for regional peace, though he was not a signatory, reflected in low market confidence.
U.S. President Donald Trump signs initial U.S.-Iran peace deal at Versailles dinner
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 2%12%
On June 17, 2026, President Trump signed the initial peace agreement with Iran at a dinner hosted by French President Macron at Versailles, surprising attendees and confirming the deal's execution. This event sharply confirmed Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as the Iranian signatory and caused market confidence in other potential signatories to collapse.
Top Democrats demand briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding
Marco Rubio plunges to 11%35%
Congressional Democrats requested a briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, reflecting scrutiny and skepticism about the deal. Rubio's role as Secretary of State and his involvement in the deal affected market confidence in him as a signatory.
Trump signs U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 17%42%
President Donald Trump personally signed the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding at a dinner hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio present, marking a critical milestone in the deal's formalization and causing a sharp price drop for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as the signatory role was clarified.
Trump meets Gulf leaders at G7 summit, discusses Iran deal and regional stability
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan dips to 10%2%
Trump met with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the G7 summit, discussing the Iran deal and regional security, which influenced market perceptions of the deal's progress and the roles of Gulf leaders.
Araghchi Briefs Diplomats on Lebanon Conditions in U.S.-Iran Memorandum
Abbas Araghchi dips to 33%2%
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that the memorandum of understanding requires an immediate end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, which highlighted his secondary role compared to Ghalibaf who signed the deal.
Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials express skepticism over Iran deal
Marco Rubio dips to 9%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials voiced doubts about Iran's commitment to the memorandum of understanding, reflecting internal U.S. skepticism. This caused a decline in market confidence for Rubio as a potential signatory.
Saudi Cabinet chaired by Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran agreement
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 5%41%
Saudi Arabia's official support for the US-Iran deal slightly increased market confidence in Mohammed bin Salman as a potential signatory.
Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and U.S. President Trump discuss regional tensions and diplomatic efforts
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 25%20%
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed regional developments and efforts to maintain peace and security, including support for diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan to prevent escalation between the U.S. and Iran. This reinforced market confidence in Sheikh Tamim as a potential signatory.
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani discusses US-Iran deal with President Trump
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani jumps to 45%5%
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and US President Donald Trump held a phone call discussing efforts for regional de-escalation and stability amid US-Iran negotiations, supporting diplomatic efforts and boosting market confidence in Tamim as a potential signatory.
Peace deal virtually signed by US President, Vance, and Iran's Ghalibaf
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 96%5%
The US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf virtually signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. This formalized the deal and confirmed Ghalibaf as a signer, causing market prices for Ghalibaf to peak.
Saudi Crown Prince backs U.S.–Iran memorandum
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 9%37%
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the U.S.–Iran MOU on X, giving a brief boost to his odds, which then fell steadily as the market reassessed his role.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says U.S.-Iran deal includes end of war and Lebanon truce
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 22%47%
On June 16, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding requires an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Israel's occupation of Lebanon. This clarified key terms of the deal and affected market confidence in Araghchi as a signatory, though his price declined afterward due to internal opposition.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran agreement and commends Pakistan mediation
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 9%37%
Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the US-Iran agreement to end military operations and praised Pakistan's mediation efforts, impacting market perceptions though his signing probability dropped to 9%.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani praises U.S.-Iran deal and regional stability efforts
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 8%37%
On June 16, 2026, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani publicly supported the U.S.-Iran peace deal and expressed readiness to assist in regional stability, reflecting Qatar's mediator role but not as a signatory, leading to a decline in his market price from 45% to 8%.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for Iran nuclear talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%42%
Steve Witkoff, U.S. special envoy, traveled to Switzerland in mid-June 2026 to participate in nuclear negotiations with Iran, signaling active U.S. engagement in the peace process. This maintained market interest in Witkoff as a potential signatory, though no final signing occurred yet.
Iranian FM Araghchi states end of war must include end of Israel's presence in Lebanon
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 35%40%
On June 16, 2026, Abbas Araghchi emphasized that the U.S.-Iran agreement must include ending Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, highlighting a key condition for peace and affecting perceptions of the deal's scope and complexity.
Iranian deputy foreign minister confirms Ghalibaf to attend signing in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 31%63%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi confirmed that Ghalibaf would attend the signing ceremony in Switzerland, reinforcing market confidence in Ghalibaf as the Iranian signatory.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi states U.S.-Iran deal requires Israel withdrawal from Lebanon
On June 16, 2026, Abbas Araghchi stated that the U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war must include the end of Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. This condition was contentious and contributed to market uncertainty about the deal’s finalization and signatories.
Iran's Ghalibaf to attend signing ceremony of US-Iran deal in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 15%20%
Iranian deputy foreign minister confirmed that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf would attend the official signing ceremony of the deal in Switzerland, reinforcing his role as the Iranian signatory and supporting his market position.
Iranian FM Araghchi says US-Iran deal requires Israel withdrawal from Lebanon
Abbas Araghchi drops to 11%13%
On June 16, 2026, Abbas Araghchi stated that the peace deal requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a contentious point as Israel opposes this condition. This statement highlighted a key sticking point in the deal, reducing confidence in Araghchi's signing and complicating the agreement.
Israeli PM Netanyahu criticizes US-Iran deal, vows to maintain presence in Lebanon
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 6%39%
On June 16, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticized the US-Iran deal and vowed to continue Israel's military presence in Lebanon, opposing the deal's terms. This opposition from a key regional actor decreased market confidence in Netanyahu signing the deal and increased uncertainty overall.
Iranian FM Araghchi says deal includes Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 35%47%
Araghchi announced that the agreement required Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a controversial clause that caused protests and a sharp drop in his market price to 35 % the next day.
UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed discusses Iran deal with President Trump at G7
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan plunges to 13%36%
UAE President MBZ met Trump at the G7 summit and discussed the Iran deal, boosting expectations that he would be a regional signatory. His market price fell from 49 % to 13 % after the meeting as the signing was postponed.
President Trump Meets UAE and Qatar Leaders to Discuss Iran Deal and Regional Security
Trump held back-to-back meetings with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the G7 summit, discussing the Iran deal and regional security, influencing market perceptions of Gulf leaders' roles in the deal.
U.S. and Iran announce memorandum of understanding and plan signing ceremony
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 8%43%
On June 15-16, 2026, the U.S. and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, with a formal signing ceremony planned in Switzerland. U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were named as signatories, causing a sharp drop in market odds for other potential signers.
Trump meets Gulf leaders including Mohamed bin Zayed and Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Iran deal
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan plunges to 1%45%
On June 16, 2026, President Trump met with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Qatar Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the G7 summit to discuss the Iran deal and regional security, influencing market perceptions of Gulf leaders' roles but not increasing their signing odds significantly.
Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed to attend U.S.-Iran deal signing in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 1%50%
An Iranian deputy foreign minister announced that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, would attend the signing of the peace deal with the U.S. in Switzerland, representing Iran officially. This confirmation significantly increased market confidence that Ghalibaf would be the signatory for Iran, causing a sharp drop in probabilities for other individuals.
US President Trump and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf virtually sign peace memorandum
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 13%38%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran had electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, with Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as signatories. This official confirmation caused a sharp drop in market prices for other potential signatories.
Iran's top negotiator Ghalibaf confirmed to attend U.S.-Iran deal signing in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 85%34%
Iranian deputy foreign minister announced that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will represent Iran at the signing of the peace deal with the U.S. in Switzerland, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance representing Washington. This confirmation caused a sharp rise in the market price for Ghalibaf as the potential signatory.
U.S. and Iran announce initial deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
On June 15, 2026, the U.S. and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and set the stage for further negotiations. This major breakthrough raised hopes for peace but left critical issues unresolved, impacting market confidence in potential signatories.
US and Iran reach preliminary memorandum of understanding to end hostilities
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
On June 15, 2026, the US and Iran reportedly reached a preliminary 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and ending hostilities in Lebanon. This announcement caused initial market optimism for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi as key negotiators, reflected in higher prices before a subsequent decline.
US and Iran sign preliminary peace deal in Geneva
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%40%
President Donald Trump and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, initiating a 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This event caused a surge in market confidence for Ghalibaf as the likely signatory.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance announces digital signing of U.S.-Iran memorandum
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 11%24%
JD Vance announced that the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was digitally signed, confirming the deal's formalization. This event caused a sharp drop in confidence for Abbas Araghchi and Marco Rubio as signatories, while Ghalibaf's probability fluctuated.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran deal to end war, signing ceremony planned in Switzerland
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a deal between the US and Iran to end military operations, with a signing ceremony scheduled, raising market attention on potential signatories including regional leaders.
U.S. and Iran electronically sign memorandum of understanding to end war
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
On June 15, 2026, the United States and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, with U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as signatories. This event significantly increased market confidence in Ghalibaf as the key signatory and marked a major diplomatic breakthrough.
U.S. and Iran Sign Preliminary Memorandum of Understanding in Geneva
The U.S. and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities and establish a framework for further negotiations, with a formal signing ceremony planned. This event confirmed the deal's existence and the key actors involved, impacting market prices for potential signatories.
US and Iran reach preliminary peace deal, signing ceremony planned in Switzerland
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end their war, with an official signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Geneva. This marked a major breakthrough and increased market activity around potential signatories.
US and Iran virtually sign memorandum of understanding to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 19%32%
On June 15, 2026, the United States and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, starting a 60-day negotiation period for a final deal. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed for Iran, alongside US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. This event marked a major diplomatic breakthrough and caused significant market reactions, especially for Ghalibaf's signing probability.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran's Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to sign Islamabad Memorandum
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 1%50%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were announced as the representatives who would sign the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, formalizing the ceasefire and peace agreement. This official designation reinforced market expectations that Ghalibaf would be the signatory from Iran's side.
Trump and Iranian officials virtually sign initial U.S.-Iran agreement to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 96%45%
On June 15, 2026, President Donald Trump and Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, virtually signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and start a 60-day negotiation period. This event caused a spike in market prices for Ghalibaf and other Iranian figures as potential signatories.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomes US-Iran peace agreement, praises Pakistan mediation
Recep Tayyip Erdogan plunges to 13%32%
President Erdogan publicly welcomed the peace agreement between the US and Iran, calling it a significant step toward regional stability and peace. He praised Pakistan's mediation efforts and urged restraint to avoid sabotage before the official signing, reflecting regional support for the deal.
US and Iran sign preliminary deal; US delegation includes JD Vance, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff
Marco Rubio plunges to 20%26%
The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, with US Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff leading the US delegation. This formalized the deal and confirmed the US signatories, impacting market probabilities for Rubio and Witkoff.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi engages regional partners after US-Iran deal
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 28%32%
Following reports of a peace understanding between the US and Iran, Abbas Araghchi held discussions with foreign ministers of Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt to build regional support for the agreement, signaling his active role in the diplomatic process.
Saudi Arabia welcomes US-Iran agreement to halt military operations
Saudi Arabia publicly welcomed the agreement between the US and Iran to end military operations and begin detailed negotiations, praising mediation efforts by Pakistan and Qatar. This endorsement reflected regional support for the peace process but did not directly increase the likelihood of any individual signing the deal.
Iran and US sign memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and start negotiations
On June 15, 2026, Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) electronically, marking a major step toward ending military operations and initiating detailed negotiations for a permanent agreement. This event significantly impacted market prices, lowering the perceived likelihood of individual signatories as the deal was formalized at a higher level.
Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed to attend U.S.-Iran deal signing in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 83%32%
An Iranian deputy foreign minister announced that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator, would attend the signing of the deal ending the war with the United States in Switzerland, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance representing Washington. This confirmation significantly increased market confidence that Ghalibaf would be the signatory from Iran.
Iranian FM Araghchi says MOU will address nuclear program and sanctions relief
Abbas Araghchi surges to 82%37%
Iranian FM Araghchi told officials the MOU would cover nuclear and sanctions issues, confirming Iran’s participation. This lifted his market probability to 82 % before a swift decline later in the week.
U.S. and Iran reach preliminary peace agreement, signing planned for Friday
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 11%34%
A memorandum of understanding was announced to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with signing scheduled, increasing market confidence in key signatories.
US and Iran digitally sign Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 35%8%
The US and Iran digitally signed the MoU to end the 2026 Iran war, with Ghalibaf representing Iran and JD Vance representing the US. This official signing confirmed Ghalibaf as the Iranian signatory, causing a spike in his market price.
U.S.-Iran Deal Signed Electronically by Trump, Vance, and Ghalibaf
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
Senior administration officials revealed that the U.S.-Iran deal was signed electronically on Sunday by President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, causing Ghalibaf's odds to skyrocket.
U.S. and Iran digitally sign Islamabad Memorandum to end 2026 Iran war
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 85%34%
On June 15, U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran had been digitally signed the previous day, marking a formal step toward ending the 2026 Iran war. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was named as the Iranian signatory, while Vance represented the U.S. This event initially boosted market confidence in Ghalibaf as the likely signatory.
U.S. and Iran sign preliminary Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 94%43%
The U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary peace deal in Geneva, with Vice President JD Vance representing the U.S. and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf representing Iran, confirming the signing event and raising market prices for Ghalibaf.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu distances himself from U.S.-Iran deal
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 1%44%
Benjamin Netanyahu held a press conference after the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, avoiding direct criticism but distancing himself from the deal. His political stance and lack of involvement as a signatory led to a decline in market probability for him signing the agreement.
U.S. and Iran reach framework agreement to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 6%45%
On June 14, 2026, the U.S. and Iran announced a preliminary framework agreement including a ceasefire extension and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was welcomed by regional leaders and boosted market confidence in a peace deal.
Senior Iranian official outlines draft US-Iran memorandum including nuclear work and sanctions relief
Abbas Araghchi jumps to 61%5%
A senior Iranian official revealed a draft memorandum of understanding covering Tehran's nuclear program, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. waivers on oil sanctions, signaling progress but also highlighting unresolved issues. This influenced market perceptions of the deal's scope and feasibility.
Saudi Arabia welcomes US-Iran deal and praises mediation efforts
On June 14, Saudi Arabia publicly welcomed the US-Iran agreement to end hostilities and start detailed negotiations, praising the mediation by Pakistan and Qatar. This regional endorsement influenced market sentiment by highlighting broader acceptance of the deal framework.
Protests erupt in Iran against peace deal negotiators Ghalibaf and Araghchi
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 35%58%
Dozens protested outside the Iranian Foreign Ministry in Mashhad against Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf over the emerging US-Iran peace deal, reflecting internal opposition and causing market confidence in these signatories to decline.
Hardline Iranians Protest Against Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Over Impending Deal
Abbas Araghchi surges to 66%16%
Hardline regime supporters in Iran staged protests against Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, accusing them of compromising with the U.S. as the deal neared completion.
Ghalibaf tells U.S. President Trump all commitments must be honoured
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 92%41%
Ghalibaf posted on X demanding that all parties honor their commitments without “ifs, buts, or excuses”. The statement was taken as a sign that Iran was firmly engaged, pushing his market price back up to 92 % before a rapid reversal.
Protests in Iran target Abbas Araghchi over US-Iran deal
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 54%28%
On June 13, 2026, protests erupted outside the Iranian Foreign Ministry against Abbas Araghchi due to opposition from hardliners to the US-Iran peace deal. This domestic backlash contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for Araghchi as a signatory.
Protests erupt in Iran against Abbas Araghchi over US-Iran peace deal
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 7%47%
On June 13, 2026, protests occurred outside the Iranian Foreign Ministry against Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf due to opposition to the emerging US-Iran peace deal. This domestic backlash signaled internal resistance, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for Araghchi and Ghalibaf signing the deal.
Araghchi details draft deal covering Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon conflict
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 46%18%
Araghchi outlined key provisions of the draft memorandum including lifting the US naval blockade, management of the Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire in Lebanon. This reinforced the seriousness of the deal and impacted market prices for Araghchi.
Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to attend signing of US deal
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 2%49%
An Iranian deputy foreign minister announced that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf would attend the signing of the deal in Switzerland, representing Iran officially. This news clarified the identity of the Iranian signatory, causing a sharp drop in the market prices for other potential signatories.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi outlines draft U.S. deal including lifting naval blockade and Hormuz arrangements
Abbas Araghchi surges to 66%21%
On June 12, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed details of a draft deal with the U.S. including ending the naval blockade and managing the Strait of Hormuz, signaling progress in negotiations and raising market optimism for Araghchi's involvement.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says US-Iran deal draft includes ending naval blockade and Hormuz arrangements
Abbas Araghchi jumps to 54%9%
On June 12, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a draft deal with the US included lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and new arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz. He also warned that Israel was trying to derail the deal. This announcement raised market expectations for Araghchi signing the deal, reflected in initial price increases.
U.S. and Iranian envoys begin regional talks amid ceasefire uncertainty
Abbas Araghchi surges to 66%21%
Initial market optimism was reflected in higher prices for Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as diplomatic efforts appeared to gain traction. However, the hardline U.S. stance under Secretary Marco Rubio and President Trump’s prior ceasefire termination cast doubt on progress, leading to volatile price swings.
U.S. delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner present in Doha for talks with Qatari officials
Steve Witkoff jumps to 50%5%
The presence of U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Doha for meetings with senior Qatari officials, including Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, signaled active U.S. diplomatic engagement in the region. This raised market interest in the possibility of a deal being signed by these figures or their affiliates.
United Arab Emirates agrees to unlock billions for Iran amid conflict
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 30%15%
The UAE agreed to release billions of dollars to Iran in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks, signaling a move toward de-escalation and economic cooperation. This development influenced market perceptions of Iran's diplomatic engagement and the likelihood of a deal being signed by Iranian officials like Abbas Araghchi.
Pakistan brokers ceasefire talks between US and Iran in Islamabad
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
The Islamabad Memorandum talks began, with US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leading their respective delegations. This set the stage for a potential peace agreement, initially boosting market confidence in Ghalibaf as the signatory.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi outlines draft U.S.-Iran deal including lifting naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz arrangements
On June 12, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a draft agreement framework with the U.S. that included ending the naval blockade of Iranian ports and new arrangements for managing the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement raised market expectations for Araghchi as a potential signatory, reflected in initial price levels around 45%.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif announces final text of U.S.-Iran peace deal agreed
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on the final text of a peace deal, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and boosting market confidence in the deal's imminent signing.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says US-Iran deal 'never been closer'
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tweeted that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was closer to completion than ever, signaling a potential breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. This boosted market confidence in Araghchi and Ghalibaf as key signatories.
Pakistani Prime Minister Announces Final Text Agreement Between U.S. and Iran
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the U.S. and Iran had reached agreement on the final text to end the war, signaling progress toward a formal deal and influencing market expectations about signatories.
Abbas Araghchi leads Iranian delegation to Oman for talks on bilateral relations and Strait of Hormuz
Abbas Araghchi surges to 68%23%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Oman aimed to discuss regional developments and improve diplomatic ties, raising initial market optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran deal. This visit was part of ongoing diplomatic efforts involving Gulf intermediaries to stabilize the region and possibly revive negotiations.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti