Recent polling averages show neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-religious bloc nor the center-left opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, with both hovering near 51–53. The 3.25% electoral threshold remains decisive, as several smaller lists—including the new Hendel-Zelekha Reservists-Economic Party and Amcha Yisrael—sit near or below it in surveys, while established parties such as Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism-Zehut, The Democrats, Together, Yisrael Beytenu, Joint List, and Ra’am consistently clear it. Surplus-vote agreements, Haredi draft issues, and overseas voting in the final days before the October 27 election could shift marginal outcomes and determine which lists ultimately secure seats.