Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June—the year’s largest at the time and a franchise record—has anchored trader sentiment at 92.5% implied probability for third place among 2026 debuts. Its performance outpaced The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million April start and benefited from strong family appeal, Pixar brand loyalty, and positive reviews that drove immediate ticket sales. With two larger tentpoles already or expected to open bigger—Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey—plus Avengers: Doomsday positioned for a potential top-two finish, the market views Toy Story 5 as the clearest candidate for the third slot. An upset would require an unexpected underperformance from one of the higher-profile releases or a surprise late-year animated or event film exceeding the $160 million threshold.