Ongoing US-Iran tensions and a restricted Strait of Hormuz, with commercial traffic at roughly 10% of normal levels amid blockade enforcement and reported attacks, represent the core driver shaping trader views on naval transits by year-end. US Navy assets, including guided-missile destroyers and carrier groups, have already operated through the waterway under CENTCOM coordination, while elevated freight rates—such as MEG-China VLCC at $24 per barrel—and upward revisions to crude forecasts near $81 per barrel reflect sustained supply risks and insurance premiums. France has signaled readiness for minehunter and carrier deployments, with a broader European coalition of at least 10 NATO members positioned for freedom-of-navigation support. Key near-term catalysts include potential diplomatic shifts post-US midterms and further mine-clearance or escort operations that could expand participation.