Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuali paesi invieranno navi da guerra attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz entro il 31 agosto?
Quali paesi invieranno navi da guerra attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz entro il 31 agosto?
$287,530 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Regno Unito
No
Francia
No
Stati Uniti
No
Paesi Bassi
No
Grecia
No
Italia
No
Germania
No
Australia
No
$287,530 Vol.
Regno Unito
$24,721 Vol.
No
Francia
$59,383 Vol.
No
Stati Uniti
$47,320 Vol.
No
Paesi Bassi
$46,952 Vol.
No
Grecia
$5,798 Vol.
No
Italia
$7,525 Vol.
No
Germania
$93,225 Vol.
No
Australia
$2,606 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$287,530Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$287,530Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and the associated naval blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 10 vessels per day as of late August 2026, well below the pre-conflict baseline of 130, supporting elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting costs for energy cargoes. U.S. Navy assets, including destroyers and carrier strike groups, have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and tanker escorts under operations such as Project Freedom, while Indian Navy warships have executed escort missions for flagged vessels. These deployments, alongside limited activity from other nations, have shaped trader views on which countries’ military vessels would transit by the August 31 resolution date. Recent mine-clearance announcements and fluctuating Omani corridor usage have introduced modest volatility in implied probabilities without materially altering the dominant U.S. and Indian presence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Gli Stati Uniti invieranno navi da guerra attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
21%
Sì
Almeno 50 navi transiteranno attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz in un qualsiasi giorno entro il 31 agosto 2026?
3%
Sì
Almeno 10 navi transiteranno lo Stretto di Hormuz in qualsiasi giorno entro il 30 settembre 2026?
69%
Sì
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