Anthropic commands 97% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases and consistent benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning, coding, and safety-aligned performance. The compressed timeline to month-end leaves little room for rivals to overtake via new launches, reinforcing the market's view of current capability gaps. Plausible challenges include an unexpected major update from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that demonstrably surpasses Anthropic's latest offering on key third-party evaluations before the resolution date, though such a development would need to materialize and gain rapid verification within the next two weeks to shift sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di agosto?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di agosto?
Anthropic 97.6%
OpenAI 1.7%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,915,686 Vol.
$1,915,686 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
2%
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 97.6%
OpenAI 1.7%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,915,686 Vol.
$1,915,686 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
$402,308 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$165,709 Vol.
2%
$150,079 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$158,076 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$147,550 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$161,932 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$163,247 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$236,364 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$118,819 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic commands 97% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases and consistent benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning, coding, and safety-aligned performance. The compressed timeline to month-end leaves little room for rivals to overtake via new launches, reinforcing the market's view of current capability gaps. Plausible challenges include an unexpected major update from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that demonstrably surpasses Anthropic's latest offering on key third-party evaluations before the resolution date, though such a development would need to materialize and gain rapid verification within the next two weeks to shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,915,686Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic commands 97% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases and consistent benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning, coding, and safety-aligned performance. The compressed timeline to month-end leaves little room for rivals to overtake via new launches, reinforcing the market's view of current capability gaps. Plausible challenges include an unexpected major update from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that demonstrably surpasses Anthropic's latest offering on key third-party evaluations before the resolution date, though such a development would need to materialize and gain rapid verification within the next two weeks to shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,915,686Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands 97% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting trader consensus around its recent model releases and consistent benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning, coding, and safety-aligned performance. The compressed timeline to month-end leaves little room for rivals to overtake via new launches, reinforcing the market's view of current capability gaps. Plausible challenges include an unexpected major update from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that demonstrably surpasses Anthropic's latest offering on key third-party evaluations before the resolution date, though such a development would need to materialize and gain rapid verification within the next two weeks to shift sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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