Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks in intelligence, coding (SWE-bench), and reasoning as of mid-August 2026, giving the company a decisive edge just 12 days before the August 31 resolution. Trader consensus reflects this sustained performance gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini releases, with no comparable competitor updates in the past month to shift momentum. The 96.7% market-implied probability captures this benchmark dominance and short remaining window. A surprise frontier release from OpenAI or Google, or a major leaderboard revision favoring another lab's model, remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero1 alla fine di agosto? (Controllo stile attivato)
Quale azienda ha il modello di intelligenza artificiale numero1 alla fine di agosto? (Controllo stile attivato)
Anthropic 96.8%
OpenAI 2.5%
Google 1.1%
Bytedance <1%
$25,495 Vol.
$25,495 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Bytedance
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.8%
OpenAI 2.5%
Google 1.1%
Bytedance <1%
$25,495 Vol.
$25,495 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
$5,884 Vol.
97%
OpenAI
$2,845 Vol.
2%
$2,058 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$608 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,290 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,181 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,871 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks in intelligence, coding (SWE-bench), and reasoning as of mid-August 2026, giving the company a decisive edge just 12 days before the August 31 resolution. Trader consensus reflects this sustained performance gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini releases, with no comparable competitor updates in the past month to shift momentum. The 96.7% market-implied probability captures this benchmark dominance and short remaining window. A surprise frontier release from OpenAI or Google, or a major leaderboard revision favoring another lab's model, remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$25,495Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks in intelligence, coding (SWE-bench), and reasoning as of mid-August 2026, giving the company a decisive edge just 12 days before the August 31 resolution. Trader consensus reflects this sustained performance gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini releases, with no comparable competitor updates in the past month to shift momentum. The 96.7% market-implied probability captures this benchmark dominance and short remaining window. A surprise frontier release from OpenAI or Google, or a major leaderboard revision favoring another lab's model, remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,495Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks in intelligence, coding (SWE-bench), and reasoning as of mid-August 2026, giving the company a decisive edge just 12 days before the August 31 resolution. Trader consensus reflects this sustained performance gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini releases, with no comparable competitor updates in the past month to shift momentum. The 96.7% market-implied probability captures this benchmark dominance and short remaining window. A surprise frontier release from OpenAI or Google, or a major leaderboard revision favoring another lab's model, remains the main realistic path to altering the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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