Google's repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first promised for June 2026 at I/O and later shifted past July without a firm public timeline, anchor the 32.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has remained in limited partner testing due to shortfalls in coding performance and agentic capabilities relative to internal benchmarks, while Google ships monthly Flash variants—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 architecture. Traders weigh this conservative cadence against competitive pressure from rival frontier models and the absence of new developer-conference or earnings updates that could accelerate a flagship launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuando uscirà il prossimo modello di Google Gemini Pro?
Quando uscirà il prossimo modello di Google Gemini Pro?
Nessun rilascio entro il 1° novembre 33%
28 settembre–4 ottobre 19.9%
12 ottobre–18 ottobre 11%
14 settembre–20 settembre 6.7%
$38,278 Vol.
$38,278 Vol.
6 set 2026
31 agosto–6 settembre
1%
7–13 settembre
4%
14 settembre–20 settembre
7%
21 settembre–27 settembre
6%
28 settembre–4 ottobre
20%
5–11 ottobre
2%
12 ottobre–18 ottobre
11%
19–25 ottobre
6%
26 ottobre–1 novembre
3%
Nessun rilascio entro il 1° novembre
33%
Nessun rilascio entro il 1° novembre 33%
28 settembre–4 ottobre 19.9%
12 ottobre–18 ottobre 11%
14 settembre–20 settembre 6.7%
$38,278 Vol.
$38,278 Vol.
6 set 2026
31 agosto–6 settembre
$324 Vol.
1%
7–13 settembre
$1,119 Vol.
4%
14 settembre–20 settembre
$375 Vol.
7%
21 settembre–27 settembre
$516 Vol.
6%
28 settembre–4 ottobre
$456 Vol.
20%
5–11 ottobre
$348 Vol.
2%
12 ottobre–18 ottobre
$557 Vol.
11%
19–25 ottobre
$402 Vol.
6%
26 ottobre–1 novembre
$426 Vol.
3%
Nessun rilascio entro il 1° novembre
$32,977 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first promised for June 2026 at I/O and later shifted past July without a firm public timeline, anchor the 32.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has remained in limited partner testing due to shortfalls in coding performance and agentic capabilities relative to internal benchmarks, while Google ships monthly Flash variants—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 architecture. Traders weigh this conservative cadence against competitive pressure from rival frontier models and the absence of new developer-conference or earnings updates that could accelerate a flagship launch.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$38,278Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first promised for June 2026 at I/O and later shifted past July without a firm public timeline, anchor the 32.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has remained in limited partner testing due to shortfalls in coding performance and agentic capabilities relative to internal benchmarks, while Google ships monthly Flash variants—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 architecture. Traders weigh this conservative cadence against competitive pressure from rival frontier models and the absence of new developer-conference or earnings updates that could accelerate a flagship launch.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$38,278Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first promised for June 2026 at I/O and later shifted past July without a firm public timeline, anchor the 32.5% implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has remained in limited partner testing due to shortfalls in coding performance and agentic capabilities relative to internal benchmarks, while Google ships monthly Flash variants—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—and confirms pre-training has begun on the larger Gemini 4 architecture. Traders weigh this conservative cadence against competitive pressure from rival frontier models and the absence of new developer-conference or earnings updates that could accelerate a flagship launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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