Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 internal codenames, such as iris-alpha, appearing in OpenAI's Codex traces have positioned the mid-June window as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Following the April rollout of GPT-5.5 and its subsequent Instant refinements in May, traders see this as the logical next iteration in OpenAI's accelerated release cadence for large language models. Speculation centers on enhanced coding capabilities and a potential 1.5-million-token context window, though no official benchmarks or announcements have confirmed details. The tight clustering around June 15–21 reflects expectations of a swift public or API debut amid competitive pressure from other labs, while the 21% chance of delay past June 28 accounts for typical testing and safety review timelines in frontier AI development.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 15–June 21 51%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
June 8–June 14 13%
$61,119 Vol.
$61,119 Vol.
28 giu 2026
June 1–June 7
1%
June 8–June 14
13%
June 15–June 21
51%
June 22–June 28
22%
Not released by June 28
21%
June 15–June 21 51%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
June 8–June 14 13%
$61,119 Vol.
$61,119 Vol.
28 giu 2026
June 1–June 7
$12,151 Vol.
1%
June 8–June 14
$10,610 Vol.
13%
June 15–June 21
$2,611 Vol.
51%
June 22–June 28
$2,001 Vol.
22%
Not released by June 28
$6,608 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 internal codenames, such as iris-alpha, appearing in OpenAI's Codex traces have positioned the mid-June window as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Following the April rollout of GPT-5.5 and its subsequent Instant refinements in May, traders see this as the logical next iteration in OpenAI's accelerated release cadence for large language models. Speculation centers on enhanced coding capabilities and a potential 1.5-million-token context window, though no official benchmarks or announcements have confirmed details. The tight clustering around June 15–21 reflects expectations of a swift public or API debut amid competitive pressure from other labs, while the 21% chance of delay past June 28 accounts for typical testing and safety review timelines in frontier AI development.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$61,119Data di fine
28 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 internal codenames, such as iris-alpha, appearing in OpenAI's Codex traces have positioned the mid-June window as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Following the April rollout of GPT-5.5 and its subsequent Instant refinements in May, traders see this as the logical next iteration in OpenAI's accelerated release cadence for large language models. Speculation centers on enhanced coding capabilities and a potential 1.5-million-token context window, though no official benchmarks or announcements have confirmed details. The tight clustering around June 15–21 reflects expectations of a swift public or API debut amid competitive pressure from other labs, while the 21% chance of delay past June 28 accounts for typical testing and safety review timelines in frontier AI development.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,119Data di fine
28 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 internal codenames, such as iris-alpha, appearing in OpenAI's Codex traces have positioned the mid-June window as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Following the April rollout of GPT-5.5 and its subsequent Instant refinements in May, traders see this as the logical next iteration in OpenAI's accelerated release cadence for large language models. Speculation centers on enhanced coding capabilities and a potential 1.5-million-token context window, though no official benchmarks or announcements have confirmed details. The tight clustering around June 15–21 reflects expectations of a swift public or API debut amid competitive pressure from other labs, while the 21% chance of delay past June 28 accounts for typical testing and safety review timelines in frontier AI development.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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