Gold prices faced significant downward pressure in September 2026 amid a hawkish Federal Reserve shift, including a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16 that lifted the target range to 3.75–4.00%. This fueled market-implied odds of roughly 70% for an October follow-up move, pushing 10-year Treasury yields to 5.23%—their highest since 2007—and supporting a stronger dollar. Elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel, tied to Middle East tensions, amplified inflation concerns and real-yield headwinds, contributing to a roughly 6–7% monthly decline that took spot XAUUSD from near $4,400 early in the period to lows around $4,110 before a modest rebound on softer core PCE prints. Counterbalancing support came from record central bank purchases and ETF inflows, though these proved insufficient to offset the macro tightening narrative as the month closed near $4,180–$4,200.