US-Iran tensions and the associated sanctions campaign have driven sharp rial depreciation in recent weeks, with open-market rates reaching approximately 2.5–2.7 million rials per dollar amid curtailed oil exports, a naval blockade, and measures targeting Iran’s shadow fleet. High inflation near 90 percent and GDP contraction have compounded capital flight and reduced foreign-currency inflows, keeping trader focus on whether these pressures persist through year-end. Ongoing diplomatic contacts, including indirect talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, introduce uncertainty about potential sanctions relief or a post-midterm framework that could stabilize or modestly strengthen the currency. The tight distribution between the 2.5–3.0 million and 3.0–3.5 million ranges reflects competing assessments of how quickly any negotiated easing might offset continued economic isolation.