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icon for Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?
Economy·Trump

Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?

icon for Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?
Economy·Trump

Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?

Polymarket

$21,010 Vol.

Polymarket

$21,010 Vol.

<500 miliardi

$16,638 Vol.

7%

500–600 miliardi

$413 Vol.

4%

600–700 miliardi

$435 Vol.

4%

700–800 miliardi

$456 Vol.

8%

800–900 miliardi

$1,008 Vol.

46%

900 miliardi–1 trilione

$979 Vol.

34%

1T–1,1T

$447 Vol.

7%

1,1T+

$635 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on an 800–900 billion dollar U.S. trade deficit for 2026, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bracket close behind, reflecting the 2025 full-year total of 901.5 billion and recent monthly readings near 60 billion. Higher tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed some imports while boosting customs revenue, yet the goods deficit remains elevated as supply chains adjust and services surpluses expand modestly. Year-to-date 2026 data show a sharp narrowing versus 2025 amid stronger exports of energy and agricultural products, supported by geopolitical developments that lifted petroleum shipments. Partial tariff rollbacks following a February Supreme Court ruling and rising imports of consumer and capital goods have tempered further compression. Broader macroeconomic factors, including domestic demand and dollar movements, continue to anchor expectations near recent annual levels absent major new policy shifts.

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.

Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases

The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.

Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,010
Data di fine
28 feb 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on an 800–900 billion dollar U.S. trade deficit for 2026, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bracket close behind, reflecting the 2025 full-year total of 901.5 billion and recent monthly readings near 60 billion. Higher tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed some imports while boosting customs revenue, yet the goods deficit remains elevated as supply chains adjust and services surpluses expand modestly. Year-to-date 2026 data show a sharp narrowing versus 2025 amid stronger exports of energy and agricultural products, supported by geopolitical developments that lifted petroleum shipments. Partial tariff rollbacks following a February Supreme Court ruling and rising imports of consumer and capital goods have tempered further compression. Broader macroeconomic factors, including domestic demand and dollar movements, continue to anchor expectations near recent annual levels absent major new policy shifts.

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.

Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases

The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.

Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,010
Data di fine
28 feb 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.

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Domande frequenti

"Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "800–900 miliardi" a 46%, seguito da "900 miliardi–1 trilione" a 34%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 46¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 46% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?" ha generato $21K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 26, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?" è "800–900 miliardi" a 46%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 46% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "900 miliardi–1 trilione" a 34%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Deficit commerciale USA nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.