President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China prompted immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized that any return to explosive tests would require 24-36 months of preparation at the Nevada National Security Site under existing stockpile stewardship protocols. Congressional measures have advanced to require legislative approval before any resumption, reinforcing the post-1992 voluntary moratorium amid ongoing arms control debates. These procedural, technical, and oversight barriers explain sustained low trader probabilities for a test occurring by late 2026, even as geopolitical signaling and responses from other nuclear powers continue to shape the environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$667,461 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
2%
30 settembre 2026
5%
31 dicembre 2026
9%
$667,461 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$40,114 Vol.
2%
30 settembre 2026
$6,656 Vol.
5%
31 dicembre 2026
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China prompted immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized that any return to explosive tests would require 24-36 months of preparation at the Nevada National Security Site under existing stockpile stewardship protocols. Congressional measures have advanced to require legislative approval before any resumption, reinforcing the post-1992 voluntary moratorium amid ongoing arms control debates. These procedural, technical, and oversight barriers explain sustained low trader probabilities for a test occurring by late 2026, even as geopolitical signaling and responses from other nuclear powers continue to shape the environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$667,461Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China prompted immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized that any return to explosive tests would require 24-36 months of preparation at the Nevada National Security Site under existing stockpile stewardship protocols. Congressional measures have advanced to require legislative approval before any resumption, reinforcing the post-1992 voluntary moratorium amid ongoing arms control debates. These procedural, technical, and oversight barriers explain sustained low trader probabilities for a test occurring by late 2026, even as geopolitical signaling and responses from other nuclear powers continue to shape the environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,461Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China prompted immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized that any return to explosive tests would require 24-36 months of preparation at the Nevada National Security Site under existing stockpile stewardship protocols. Congressional measures have advanced to require legislative approval before any resumption, reinforcing the post-1992 voluntary moratorium amid ongoing arms control debates. These procedural, technical, and oversight barriers explain sustained low trader probabilities for a test occurring by late 2026, even as geopolitical signaling and responses from other nuclear powers continue to shape the environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti