**President Donald Trump’s July 7, 2026 announcement that the United States will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, made during bilateral talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the NATO summit in Ankara, is the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** Trump explicitly stated the administration would remove the penalties imposed in December 2020 over Turkey’s S-400 acquisition from Russia, framing the move as strengthening ties with a NATO ally and signaling openness to revisiting F-35 sales. This followed earlier Turkish diplomatic efforts, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s March 2026 comments that Ankara and Washington were working toward resolution before the November midterms, though Israel had expressed opposition. Lifting requires executive action to reverse or waive the specific sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and related officials, which remain active under CAATSA Section 231. Key variables for timing include congressional notifications, any linkage to S-400 status or F-35 certification requirements, and broader U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation. The announcement has aligned trader consensus with near-term resolution, while residual uncertainty centers on implementation details and potential legislative pushback.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$43,462 Vol.
31 ott 2026
October 31
27%
31 dicembre
47%
$43,462 Vol.
October 31
$15,196 Vol.
27%
31 dicembre
$13,805 Vol.
47%
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**President Donald Trump’s July 7, 2026 announcement that the United States will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, made during bilateral talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the NATO summit in Ankara, is the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** Trump explicitly stated the administration would remove the penalties imposed in December 2020 over Turkey’s S-400 acquisition from Russia, framing the move as strengthening ties with a NATO ally and signaling openness to revisiting F-35 sales.
This followed earlier Turkish diplomatic efforts, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s March 2026 comments that Ankara and Washington were working toward resolution before the November midterms, though Israel had expressed opposition. Lifting requires executive action to reverse or waive the specific sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and related officials, which remain active under CAATSA Section 231.
Key variables for timing include congressional notifications, any linkage to S-400 status or F-35 certification requirements, and broader U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation. The announcement has aligned trader consensus with near-term resolution, while residual uncertainty centers on implementation details and potential legislative pushback.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Mercato aperto: Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$43,462Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**President Donald Trump’s July 7, 2026 announcement that the United States will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, made during bilateral talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the NATO summit in Ankara, is the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** Trump explicitly stated the administration would remove the penalties imposed in December 2020 over Turkey’s S-400 acquisition from Russia, framing the move as strengthening ties with a NATO ally and signaling openness to revisiting F-35 sales.
This followed earlier Turkish diplomatic efforts, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s March 2026 comments that Ankara and Washington were working toward resolution before the November midterms, though Israel had expressed opposition. Lifting requires executive action to reverse or waive the specific sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and related officials, which remain active under CAATSA Section 231.
Key variables for timing include congressional notifications, any linkage to S-400 status or F-35 certification requirements, and broader U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation. The announcement has aligned trader consensus with near-term resolution, while residual uncertainty centers on implementation details and potential legislative pushback.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$43,462Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Donald Trump’s July 7, 2026 announcement that the United States will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, made during bilateral talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the NATO summit in Ankara, is the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** Trump explicitly stated the administration would remove the penalties imposed in December 2020 over Turkey’s S-400 acquisition from Russia, framing the move as strengthening ties with a NATO ally and signaling openness to revisiting F-35 sales. This followed earlier Turkish diplomatic efforts, including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s March 2026 comments that Ankara and Washington were working toward resolution before the November midterms, though Israel had expressed opposition. Lifting requires executive action to reverse or waive the specific sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and related officials, which remain active under CAATSA Section 231. Key variables for timing include congressional notifications, any linkage to S-400 status or F-35 certification requirements, and broader U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation. The announcement has aligned trader consensus with near-term resolution, while residual uncertainty centers on implementation details and potential legislative pushback.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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