Recent government actions, including the June 2026 export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models that prompted temporary full disablement before partial restoration and targeted access for trusted U.S. entities, along with OpenAI’s voluntary limits on GPT-5.6 releases, have shaped trader consensus around the 78.5% implied probability of “No.” These incidents established a precedent for national security reviews of closed frontier large language models yet resulted in negotiated compliance rather than blanket public bans, while August 2026 White House guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from pre-release testing. Market sentiment reflects the narrow scope of interventions, rapid reversals, and emphasis on innovation safeguards over repeated broad removals through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further framework clarifications and any new model capability benchmarks that could trigger additional scrutiny.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un altro importante modello di intelligenza artificiale nel 2026?
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un altro importante modello di intelligenza artificiale nel 2026?
Sì
22% probabilità
$15,547 Vol.
$15,547 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
22% probabilità
$15,547 Vol.
$15,547 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent government actions, including the June 2026 export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models that prompted temporary full disablement before partial restoration and targeted access for trusted U.S. entities, along with OpenAI’s voluntary limits on GPT-5.6 releases, have shaped trader consensus around the 78.5% implied probability of “No.” These incidents established a precedent for national security reviews of closed frontier large language models yet resulted in negotiated compliance rather than blanket public bans, while August 2026 White House guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from pre-release testing. Market sentiment reflects the narrow scope of interventions, rapid reversals, and emphasis on innovation safeguards over repeated broad removals through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further framework clarifications and any new model capability benchmarks that could trigger additional scrutiny.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$15,547Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent government actions, including the June 2026 export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models that prompted temporary full disablement before partial restoration and targeted access for trusted U.S. entities, along with OpenAI’s voluntary limits on GPT-5.6 releases, have shaped trader consensus around the 78.5% implied probability of “No.” These incidents established a precedent for national security reviews of closed frontier large language models yet resulted in negotiated compliance rather than blanket public bans, while August 2026 White House guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from pre-release testing. Market sentiment reflects the narrow scope of interventions, rapid reversals, and emphasis on innovation safeguards over repeated broad removals through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further framework clarifications and any new model capability benchmarks that could trigger additional scrutiny.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,547Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent government actions, including the June 2026 export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models that prompted temporary full disablement before partial restoration and targeted access for trusted U.S. entities, along with OpenAI’s voluntary limits on GPT-5.6 releases, have shaped trader consensus around the 78.5% implied probability of “No.” These incidents established a precedent for national security reviews of closed frontier large language models yet resulted in negotiated compliance rather than blanket public bans, while August 2026 White House guidelines explicitly exempt U.S. open-weight models from pre-release testing. Market sentiment reflects the narrow scope of interventions, rapid reversals, and emphasis on innovation safeguards over repeated broad removals through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include further framework clarifications and any new model capability benchmarks that could trigger additional scrutiny.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un importante modello di intelligenza artificiale cinese nel 2026?
13%
Sì
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un altro modello di intelligenza artificiale di Anthropic nel 2026?
21%
Sì
Il governo degli Stati Uniti vieta un modello di intelligenza artificiale open source nel 2026?
14%
Sì
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