**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% because open-weight Chinese models such as DeepSeek, Qwen, and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 remain widely downloadable and self-hostable despite July 2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration.** Officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and OSTP Director Michael Kratsios have signaled possible Entity List additions or sanctions over alleged IP distillation and cybersecurity risks, yet actions to date are limited to procurement bans on federal and select state devices. No legislation, export controls, or executive measures have broadly removed public U.S. access. The technical barrier of downloadable weights, combined with rising enterprise adoption for lower inference costs, makes comprehensive enforcement unlikely before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include any Commerce Department Entity List updates or new congressional bills, but current developments point to continued narrow restrictions rather than a sweeping removal of public availability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un importante modello di intelligenza artificiale cinese nel 2026?
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un importante modello di intelligenza artificiale cinese nel 2026?
Sì
13% probabilità
$37,595 Vol.
$37,595 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
13% probabilità
$37,595 Vol.
$37,595 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% because open-weight Chinese models such as DeepSeek, Qwen, and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 remain widely downloadable and self-hostable despite July 2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration.** Officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and OSTP Director Michael Kratsios have signaled possible Entity List additions or sanctions over alleged IP distillation and cybersecurity risks, yet actions to date are limited to procurement bans on federal and select state devices. No legislation, export controls, or executive measures have broadly removed public U.S. access. The technical barrier of downloadable weights, combined with rising enterprise adoption for lower inference costs, makes comprehensive enforcement unlikely before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include any Commerce Department Entity List updates or new congressional bills, but current developments point to continued narrow restrictions rather than a sweeping removal of public availability.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$37,595Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% because open-weight Chinese models such as DeepSeek, Qwen, and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 remain widely downloadable and self-hostable despite July 2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration.** Officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and OSTP Director Michael Kratsios have signaled possible Entity List additions or sanctions over alleged IP distillation and cybersecurity risks, yet actions to date are limited to procurement bans on federal and select state devices. No legislation, export controls, or executive measures have broadly removed public U.S. access. The technical barrier of downloadable weights, combined with rising enterprise adoption for lower inference costs, makes comprehensive enforcement unlikely before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include any Commerce Department Entity List updates or new congressional bills, but current developments point to continued narrow restrictions rather than a sweeping removal of public availability.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$37,595Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% because open-weight Chinese models such as DeepSeek, Qwen, and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 remain widely downloadable and self-hostable despite July 2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration.** Officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and OSTP Director Michael Kratsios have signaled possible Entity List additions or sanctions over alleged IP distillation and cybersecurity risks, yet actions to date are limited to procurement bans on federal and select state devices. No legislation, export controls, or executive measures have broadly removed public U.S. access. The technical barrier of downloadable weights, combined with rising enterprise adoption for lower inference costs, makes comprehensive enforcement unlikely before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include any Commerce Department Entity List updates or new congressional bills, but current developments point to continued narrow restrictions rather than a sweeping removal of public availability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un altro importante modello di intelligenza artificiale nel 2026?
22%
Sì
Il governo degli Stati Uniti rimuove l'accesso pubblico a un altro modello di intelligenza artificiale di Anthropic nel 2026?
21%
Sì
Il governo degli Stati Uniti vieta un modello di intelligenza artificiale open source nel 2026?
14%
Sì
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