UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces subdued momentum after 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2, with Bank of England projections pointing to near-zero underlying growth amid higher energy prices from Middle East developments eroding real household incomes and curbing domestic demand. Treasury economist surveys and independent forecasts converge on 0.2% QoQ as the median outcome, reflecting persistent slack, weak manufacturing readings, and inflation pressures expected to peak above 3% later in the year. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and adjacent lower bands as favored by trader-implied probabilities, while stronger outcomes remain less likely absent a rapid easing in external shocks or policy support ahead of the first official estimate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0,2–0,3% 42%
0,4–0,5% 26%
0,0–0,1% 22%
0,6–0,7% 5.9%
$18,651 Vol.
$18,651 Vol.
11 nov 2026
Negativa
6%
0,0–0,1%
22%
0,2–0,3%
42%
0,4–0,5%
26%
0,6–0,7%
6%
0,8–0,9%
1%
1,0%+
2%
0,2–0,3% 42%
0,4–0,5% 26%
0,0–0,1% 22%
0,6–0,7% 5.9%
$18,651 Vol.
$18,651 Vol.
11 nov 2026
Negativa
$4,009 Vol.
6%
0,0–0,1%
$5,586 Vol.
22%
0,2–0,3%
$6,689 Vol.
42%
0,4–0,5%
$1,673 Vol.
26%
0,6–0,7%
$265 Vol.
6%
0,8–0,9%
$196 Vol.
1%
1,0%+
$232 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces subdued momentum after 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2, with Bank of England projections pointing to near-zero underlying growth amid higher energy prices from Middle East developments eroding real household incomes and curbing domestic demand. Treasury economist surveys and independent forecasts converge on 0.2% QoQ as the median outcome, reflecting persistent slack, weak manufacturing readings, and inflation pressures expected to peak above 3% later in the year. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and adjacent lower bands as favored by trader-implied probabilities, while stronger outcomes remain less likely absent a rapid easing in external shocks or policy support ahead of the first official estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$18,651Data di fine
12 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces subdued momentum after 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2, with Bank of England projections pointing to near-zero underlying growth amid higher energy prices from Middle East developments eroding real household incomes and curbing domestic demand. Treasury economist surveys and independent forecasts converge on 0.2% QoQ as the median outcome, reflecting persistent slack, weak manufacturing readings, and inflation pressures expected to peak above 3% later in the year. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and adjacent lower bands as favored by trader-implied probabilities, while stronger outcomes remain less likely absent a rapid easing in external shocks or policy support ahead of the first official estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,651Data di fine
12 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces subdued momentum after 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2, with Bank of England projections pointing to near-zero underlying growth amid higher energy prices from Middle East developments eroding real household incomes and curbing domestic demand. Treasury economist surveys and independent forecasts converge on 0.2% QoQ as the median outcome, reflecting persistent slack, weak manufacturing readings, and inflation pressures expected to peak above 3% later in the year. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and adjacent lower bands as favored by trader-implied probabilities, while stronger outcomes remain less likely absent a rapid easing in external shocks or policy support ahead of the first official estimate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti