Recent ONS data showing 0.6% quarterly GDP expansion in Q1 2026, alongside 2025 annual growth of 1.4%, have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, EY, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reflecting resilient services activity offset by elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions and sticky inflation that is squeezing real incomes. These dynamics explain the dominant 71% market-implied probability on the 1-2% outcome and the secondary 19.5% weighting on 0-1%. The Bank of England’s policy stance, with rates near 3.75% and expected easing, supports the baseline while downside risks from prolonged energy disruptions or Q2-Q3 stagnation account for limited recession pricing. Upcoming Q2 GDP and August CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1-2% 70.9%
0-1% 20%
<0 5.0%
3-4% 1.3%
$70,639 Vol.
$70,639 Vol.
12 feb 2027
<0
5%
0-1%
20%
1-2%
71%
2-3%
<1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 70.9%
0-1% 20%
<0 5.0%
3-4% 1.3%
$70,639 Vol.
$70,639 Vol.
12 feb 2027
<0
$11,003 Vol.
5%
0-1%
$18,287 Vol.
20%
1-2%
$22,714 Vol.
71%
2-3%
$4,094 Vol.
<1%
3-4%
$3,081 Vol.
1%
4-5%
$8,223 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$3,237 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ONS data showing 0.6% quarterly GDP expansion in Q1 2026, alongside 2025 annual growth of 1.4%, have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, EY, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reflecting resilient services activity offset by elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions and sticky inflation that is squeezing real incomes. These dynamics explain the dominant 71% market-implied probability on the 1-2% outcome and the secondary 19.5% weighting on 0-1%. The Bank of England’s policy stance, with rates near 3.75% and expected easing, supports the baseline while downside risks from prolonged energy disruptions or Q2-Q3 stagnation account for limited recession pricing. Upcoming Q2 GDP and August CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$70,639Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ONS data showing 0.6% quarterly GDP expansion in Q1 2026, alongside 2025 annual growth of 1.4%, have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, EY, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reflecting resilient services activity offset by elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions and sticky inflation that is squeezing real incomes. These dynamics explain the dominant 71% market-implied probability on the 1-2% outcome and the secondary 19.5% weighting on 0-1%. The Bank of England’s policy stance, with rates near 3.75% and expected easing, supports the baseline while downside risks from prolonged energy disruptions or Q2-Q3 stagnation account for limited recession pricing. Upcoming Q2 GDP and August CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$70,639Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ONS data showing 0.6% quarterly GDP expansion in Q1 2026, alongside 2025 annual growth of 1.4%, have anchored trader sentiment around modest expansion. Consensus forecasts from the IMF, OECD, EY, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.4%, reflecting resilient services activity offset by elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions and sticky inflation that is squeezing real incomes. These dynamics explain the dominant 71% market-implied probability on the 1-2% outcome and the secondary 19.5% weighting on 0-1%. The Bank of England’s policy stance, with rates near 3.75% and expected easing, supports the baseline while downside risks from prolonged energy disruptions or Q2-Q3 stagnation account for limited recession pricing. Upcoming Q2 GDP and August CPI releases remain key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti