Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum in 2026, driven by the ruling AKP-led coalition's persistent shortfall of parliamentary seats—holding around 320 in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, below the 360 needed to advance amendments to a public vote without broader support. Recent statements from AKP deputy chair Efkan Ala on April 6 indicated the first phase of new constitution drafting is nearly complete, linking it to economic growth and "guaranteed democracy," yet no concrete timeline or cross-party negotiations have emerged amid opposition resistance from CHP and stalled Kurdish peace process hopes. Focus has shifted to targeted reforms like execution laws via the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission report, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days to signal imminent referendum action before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum in 2026, driven by the ruling AKP-led coalition's persistent shortfall of parliamentary seats—holding around 320 in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, below the 360 needed to advance amendments to a public vote without broader support. Recent statements from AKP deputy chair Efkan Ala on April 6 indicated the first phase of new constitution drafting is nearly complete, linking it to economic growth and "guaranteed democracy," yet no concrete timeline or cross-party negotiations have emerged amid opposition resistance from CHP and stalled Kurdish peace process hopes. Focus has shifted to targeted reforms like execution laws via the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission report, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days to signal imminent referendum action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$223Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum in 2026, driven by the ruling AKP-led coalition's persistent shortfall of parliamentary seats—holding around 320 in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, below the 360 needed to advance amendments to a public vote without broader support. Recent statements from AKP deputy chair Efkan Ala on April 6 indicated the first phase of new constitution drafting is nearly complete, linking it to economic growth and "guaranteed democracy," yet no concrete timeline or cross-party negotiations have emerged amid opposition resistance from CHP and stalled Kurdish peace process hopes. Focus has shifted to targeted reforms like execution laws via the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission report, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days to signal imminent referendum action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$223Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88% implied probability against Turkey announcing a constitutional referendum in 2026, driven by the ruling AKP-led coalition's persistent shortfall of parliamentary seats—holding around 320 in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, below the 360 needed to advance amendments to a public vote without broader support. Recent statements from AKP deputy chair Efkan Ala on April 6 indicated the first phase of new constitution drafting is nearly complete, linking it to economic growth and "guaranteed democracy," yet no concrete timeline or cross-party negotiations have emerged amid opposition resistance from CHP and stalled Kurdish peace process hopes. Focus has shifted to targeted reforms like execution laws via the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission report, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days to signal imminent referendum action before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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