Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire during the current Supreme Court term ending in October 2026, cooling speculation and bolstering the trader consensus for no vacancy this year at 56.5%. Despite their advanced ages—Alito at 76 and Thomas at 77—and President Trump's public comments on having replacement shortlists ready amid midterm election pressures, Alito has hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term, signaling continuity. A brief March dehydration incident for Alito resolved quickly with no lasting health concerns. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over potential late-year developments, though historical patterns show justices rarely time retirements precisely to political cycles, maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority for now.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire during the current Supreme Court term ending in October 2026, cooling speculation and bolstering the trader consensus for no vacancy this year at 56.5%. Despite their advanced ages—Alito at 76 and Thomas at 77—and President Trump's public comments on having replacement shortlists ready amid midterm election pressures, Alito has hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term, signaling continuity. A brief March dehydration incident for Alito resolved quickly with no lasting health concerns. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over potential late-year developments, though historical patterns show justices rarely time retirements precisely to political cycles, maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority for now.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,288Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire during the current Supreme Court term ending in October 2026, cooling speculation and bolstering the trader consensus for no vacancy this year at 56.5%. Despite their advanced ages—Alito at 76 and Thomas at 77—and President Trump's public comments on having replacement shortlists ready amid midterm election pressures, Alito has hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term, signaling continuity. A brief March dehydration incident for Alito resolved quickly with no lasting health concerns. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over potential late-year developments, though historical patterns show justices rarely time retirements precisely to political cycles, maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority for now.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,288Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire during the current Supreme Court term ending in October 2026, cooling speculation and bolstering the trader consensus for no vacancy this year at 56.5%. Despite their advanced ages—Alito at 76 and Thomas at 77—and President Trump's public comments on having replacement shortlists ready amid midterm election pressures, Alito has hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term, signaling continuity. A brief March dehydration incident for Alito resolved quickly with no lasting health concerns. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over potential late-year developments, though historical patterns show justices rarely time retirements precisely to political cycles, maintaining the 6-3 conservative majority for now.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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