The People's Party (PP) maintains a commanding lead in Madrid constituency polling ahead of the November 29 general election, reflecting sustained voter preference for the center-right opposition amid national dissatisfaction with the incumbent PSOE-led government's handling of housing affordability, migration pressures, and coalition stability. Recent surveys project PP securing the largest share of Madrid seats, consistent with its broader national advantage of roughly five points over PSOE. Trader consensus prices this outcome at high probability because seat projections in the 38-seat Madrid district show limited pathways for challengers like Vox, emerging lists such as Iustitia Europa, or left-leaning groups including Sumar or the Broad Front to overtake. Late campaign developments, including turnout surges among regional blocs or shifts in coalition negotiations on the left, represent the main variables that could narrow the margin.