The migration crisis that began in July 2026, involving large-scale arrivals from Morocco into Ceuta, remains the dominant factor tightening the contest for the city's single Congress seat ahead of the November 29 general election. This development has sharply eroded PSOE support locally and nationally while elevating immigration and border security as voter priorities, producing a close race between PP and Vox according to trader consensus. Local polling shows PP maintaining an edge in some surveys and Vox leading narrowly in others, reflecting Vox's emphasis on sovereignty measures alongside the PP's established local organization under Juan Jesús Vivas. Recent candidate selections, including Vox's Ana Belén Cifuentes for the Ceuta list and PSOE's Luis Manuel Tovar, underscore the parties' focus on these dynamics. Further shifts in public sentiment on enforcement or any resolution steps before election day could separate the leaders.