Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<0% 100.0%
0-2% <1%
2-3% <1%
3-4% <1%
$354,645 Vol.
$354,645 Vol.
31 mar 2026
<0%
Yes
0-2%
No
2-3%
No
3-4%
No
4-5%
No
5-6%
No
6-8%
No
8-10%
No
10%+
No
<0% 100.0%
0-2% <1%
2-3% <1%
3-4% <1%
$354,645 Vol.
$354,645 Vol.
31 mar 2026
<0%
$43,216 Vol.
Yes
0-2%
$15,340 Vol.
No
2-3%
$20,094 Vol.
No
3-4%
$43,303 Vol.
No
4-5%
$67,625 Vol.
No
5-6%
$46,183 Vol.
No
6-8%
$59,128 Vol.
No
8-10%
$35,320 Vol.
No
10%+
$24,437 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Volume
$354,645Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Volume
$354,645Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's close around 6,528 on March 31—down over 4% from the December 31, 2025, level of 6,845—confirming a price return below zero amid January's modest 1.5% gain fully erased by subsequent declines. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected February inflation reports, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals removing 2026 rate cut expectations, surging oil prices from Iran war jitters, and climbing Treasury yields that compressed equity valuations. This skin-in-the-game positioning shows strong alignment with realized fundamentals; realistic challenges are minimal post-quarter end, limited to rare data revisions or if total returns (including dividends) alter the outcome, though price performance dominates resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti