Carlos Bolsonaro secured a commanding lead for second place in Santa Catarina's Senate election through strong bolsonarista voter mobilization in a state long favorable to the PL and the former president's family, following his 2025 move to the state and alliance with Carol de Toni. Preliminary results from the October 4 vote, with over 93% of sections counted, placed him ahead of rivals including Esperidião Amin, reflecting the weight of name recognition and party coordination despite internal divisions over his candidacy and limited local ties. Trader consensus at 100% for Bolsonaro aligns with these confirmed tallies and historical patterns of high PL performance in the state, though final certification, potential recounts, or court challenges on eligibility or vote validity could still shift the outcome before market resolution.