Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial race, backed by consistent polling averages showing 50–63% first-round support, well ahead of Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) and the remaining field. His position stems from strong name recognition as former Boa Vista mayor, PL party machinery, and backing tied to national figures, which consolidated voter preference after the June supplementary election where he captured over 60% despite the unresolved sub judice status of that candidacy. Traders price the outcome at these levels because recent surveys indicate limited room for other contenders to close the gap before the first-round vote on October 4, though a late legal ruling on eligibility or unexpected consolidation in a potential runoff could still alter the trajectory.