Elaine Pelino holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the September 9 Republican primary for Rhode Island governor, driven by consistent polling advantages over Aaron Guckian in surveys of likely GOP primary voters. Guckian secured the state party endorsement at the June convention, yet Pelino has maintained double-digit leads in available head-to-head polling, reflecting stronger grassroots support among the small electorate expected to turn out. Other listed candidates either withdrew or failed to qualify for the ballot. With early voting underway and the primary just days away, scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high turnout favoring the endorsed candidate or late shifts in undecided voters, though current evidence points to limited volatility at this stage.