China’s central bank has maintained its benchmark one-year loan prime rate at a record-low 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for fourteen straight months through July 2026, reflecting a deliberate wait-and-see stance amid mixed growth signals. First-half GDP expanded 4.7% year-on-year, meeting the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet second-quarter momentum slowed to 4.3% with persistent weakness in property, domestic demand, and consumer spending. Policymakers have signaled continued “moderately loose” conditions focused on targeted liquidity support and consumption stimulus rather than broad benchmark adjustments, while inflation remains subdued near 1.2%. With the next Loan Prime Rate fixings scheduled for mid-August and late September, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to no move by September 30, consistent with the PBOC’s recent pattern and reluctance to ease further without clearer downside risks to the growth target.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Banca Popolare Cinese cambierà i tassi entro il 30 settembre?
La Banca Popolare Cinese cambierà i tassi entro il 30 settembre?
Nessun cambiamento 70%
Riduzione 26%
Aumento <1%
$28,295 Vol.
$28,295 Vol.
30 set 2026
Aumento
1%
Nessun cambiamento
70%
Riduzione
26%
Nessun cambiamento 70%
Riduzione 26%
Aumento <1%
$28,295 Vol.
$28,295 Vol.
30 set 2026
Aumento
$2,191 Vol.
1%
Nessun cambiamento
$12,536 Vol.
70%
Riduzione
$13,569 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.China’s central bank has maintained its benchmark one-year loan prime rate at a record-low 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for fourteen straight months through July 2026, reflecting a deliberate wait-and-see stance amid mixed growth signals. First-half GDP expanded 4.7% year-on-year, meeting the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet second-quarter momentum slowed to 4.3% with persistent weakness in property, domestic demand, and consumer spending. Policymakers have signaled continued “moderately loose” conditions focused on targeted liquidity support and consumption stimulus rather than broad benchmark adjustments, while inflation remains subdued near 1.2%. With the next Loan Prime Rate fixings scheduled for mid-August and late September, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to no move by September 30, consistent with the PBOC’s recent pattern and reluctance to ease further without clearer downside risks to the growth target.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
Volume
$28,295Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.China’s central bank has maintained its benchmark one-year loan prime rate at a record-low 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for fourteen straight months through July 2026, reflecting a deliberate wait-and-see stance amid mixed growth signals. First-half GDP expanded 4.7% year-on-year, meeting the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet second-quarter momentum slowed to 4.3% with persistent weakness in property, domestic demand, and consumer spending. Policymakers have signaled continued “moderately loose” conditions focused on targeted liquidity support and consumption stimulus rather than broad benchmark adjustments, while inflation remains subdued near 1.2%. With the next Loan Prime Rate fixings scheduled for mid-August and late September, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to no move by September 30, consistent with the PBOC’s recent pattern and reluctance to ease further without clearer downside risks to the growth target.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Volume
$28,295Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s central bank has maintained its benchmark one-year loan prime rate at a record-low 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5% for fourteen straight months through July 2026, reflecting a deliberate wait-and-see stance amid mixed growth signals. First-half GDP expanded 4.7% year-on-year, meeting the official 4.5–5% annual target, yet second-quarter momentum slowed to 4.3% with persistent weakness in property, domestic demand, and consumer spending. Policymakers have signaled continued “moderately loose” conditions focused on targeted liquidity support and consumption stimulus rather than broad benchmark adjustments, while inflation remains subdued near 1.2%. With the next Loan Prime Rate fixings scheduled for mid-August and late September, trader pricing assigns the highest probability to no move by September 30, consistent with the PBOC’s recent pattern and reluctance to ease further without clearer downside risks to the growth target.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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