Bob Brooks leads Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District because recent polling and fundraising trends favor the Democrat in this Lehigh Valley swing seat. A September Franklin & Marshall survey showed Brooks ahead 45-40 percent among registered voters, with 16 percent undecided, while earlier internal polls reflected similar narrow Democratic edges. Forecasters rate the race Lean Democratic or Toss-up, citing the district’s even partisan balance and Mackenzie’s narrow 2024 victory margin. Brooks, a retired Bethlehem firefighter and union president, consolidated Democratic support after his May primary win and benefits from substantial outside spending. Heavy ad volume from both parties, combined with midterm dynamics in a competitive national environment, has reinforced trader consensus on Brooks’ stronger position heading into November.