**Morena holds a commanding position in the Oaxaca state congress with roughly two-thirds of seats and an 80.9% bloc alongside PVEM and PT allies, according to recent INEGI data.** This dominance stems from the party's strong performance in the prior state election and its alignment with the current Morena-led state government under Governor Salomón Jara. Traders price Morena at 74.5% as the likely winner of the next congress election, reflecting sustained voter support, the party's organizational strength ahead of the 2027 cycle, and its success advancing priority legislation such as Guardia Nacional reforms. Opposition parties trail significantly, with PVEM at 22.5% and PAN at 19% as the next closest, while smaller parties remain at single-digit or flat probabilities. Recent legislative activity, including unanimous votes on local matters and candidate registration drives by Morena, reinforces the current market consensus without clear signs of a major shift.