Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker—requiring a 7%, 13%, or 20% S&P 500 intraday drop—before 2027, reflecting sustained low volatility with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settling at 17.48 as of April 17, 2026, down from mid-April peaks near 21 amid resilient equity performance. No Level 1-3 halts have occurred since March 2020, bolstered by the S&P 500's recent 11% surge from a 9.1% early-2026 drawdown to new highs above 7,000, driven by solid economic data and steady Fed funds rate expectations. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation releases, though historical rarity of triggers reinforces the "No" positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$49,218 Vol.
$49,218 Vol.
Sì
$49,218 Vol.
$49,218 Vol.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker—requiring a 7%, 13%, or 20% S&P 500 intraday drop—before 2027, reflecting sustained low volatility with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settling at 17.48 as of April 17, 2026, down from mid-April peaks near 21 amid resilient equity performance. No Level 1-3 halts have occurred since March 2020, bolstered by the S&P 500's recent 11% surge from a 9.1% early-2026 drawdown to new highs above 7,000, driven by solid economic data and steady Fed funds rate expectations. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation releases, though historical rarity of triggers reinforces the "No" positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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