Recent defections have sharply reduced opposition strength in Nigeria’s 10th Senate, with the APC expanding to roughly 87 seats while the PDP fell to six and other parties absorbed scattered remnants. This realignment, combined with the APC’s nationwide candidate slate and control of most state governments, underpins trader consensus favoring the ruling party for majority control after the January 2027 elections. Fragmented opposition structures, internal legal disputes, and limited recent electoral gains by parties such as the ADC and NDC have kept their implied probabilities low, while the APC’s incumbency advantages and organizational reach continue to shape assessments of the upcoming contest for the 109 Senate seats.