Ulrich Siegmund leads the market at 84% because the AfD secured 39 of 83 Landtag seats in the September 6, 2026 election—its strongest state result yet—positioning its co-chair as the presumptive choice despite lacking an absolute majority of 42. Traders price in the possibility of cross-party or secret-ballot support, following the AfD candidate’s unexpected win for Landtag president on October 6. Other listed outcomes remain low because the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW have so far rejected formal cooperation with the AfD, while talks among the non-AfD parties center on an over-party alternative or continued blocking. Sven Schulze and smaller-party figures trail in single digits, reflecting the structural barriers to forming an alternative government before the planned December vote. The market closes in mid-2027, leaving room for shifts if negotiations or additional ballots alter the arithmetic.