Microsoft's announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June marked its first in-house reasoning large language model, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts design with roughly 35 billion active parameters, 256K context, and strong performance on SWE-Bench, math benchmarks like AIME, and blind evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6. Traders view this as a key step in Microsoft's strategy to build a multimodal MAI family independent of OpenAI, emphasizing clean training data without third-party distillation and cost-efficient inference on Maia chips. Competitive positioning against Anthropic and OpenAI reasoning models, plus immediate availability on Azure Foundry, OpenRouter, and Fireworks, supports market-implied odds favoring a follow-on release by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include expanded developer access, fine-tuning options, and potential updates at future events that could accelerate or delay the next thinking model iteration.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
NUOVO
30 set 2026
September 30
31%
December 31
53%
$488 Vol.
September 30
$187 Vol.
31%
December 31
$301 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June marked its first in-house reasoning large language model, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts design with roughly 35 billion active parameters, 256K context, and strong performance on SWE-Bench, math benchmarks like AIME, and blind evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6. Traders view this as a key step in Microsoft's strategy to build a multimodal MAI family independent of OpenAI, emphasizing clean training data without third-party distillation and cost-efficient inference on Maia chips. Competitive positioning against Anthropic and OpenAI reasoning models, plus immediate availability on Azure Foundry, OpenRouter, and Fireworks, supports market-implied odds favoring a follow-on release by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include expanded developer access, fine-tuning options, and potential updates at future events that could accelerate or delay the next thinking model iteration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$488Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June marked its first in-house reasoning large language model, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts design with roughly 35 billion active parameters, 256K context, and strong performance on SWE-Bench, math benchmarks like AIME, and blind evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6. Traders view this as a key step in Microsoft's strategy to build a multimodal MAI family independent of OpenAI, emphasizing clean training data without third-party distillation and cost-efficient inference on Maia chips. Competitive positioning against Anthropic and OpenAI reasoning models, plus immediate availability on Azure Foundry, OpenRouter, and Fireworks, supports market-implied odds favoring a follow-on release by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include expanded developer access, fine-tuning options, and potential updates at future events that could accelerate or delay the next thinking model iteration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$488Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 at Build 2026 in early June marked its first in-house reasoning large language model, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts design with roughly 35 billion active parameters, 256K context, and strong performance on SWE-Bench, math benchmarks like AIME, and blind evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6. Traders view this as a key step in Microsoft's strategy to build a multimodal MAI family independent of OpenAI, emphasizing clean training data without third-party distillation and cost-efficient inference on Maia chips. Competitive positioning against Anthropic and OpenAI reasoning models, plus immediate availability on Azure Foundry, OpenRouter, and Fireworks, supports market-implied odds favoring a follow-on release by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include expanded developer access, fine-tuning options, and potential updates at future events that could accelerate or delay the next thinking model iteration.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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