Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mark Alford's 71% victory in 2024 and the recently upheld redrawn map that preserves rural and suburban conservative strongholds across west-central Missouri. With the August 4 primary and November 3 general election approaching, Alford faces limited intra-party competition while Democratic contenders remain fragmented in a district where Republican candidates have consistently secured large margins. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of recent polling shifts or major scandals that could alter the race trajectory. A late primary upset or unexpected national Democratic momentum could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
$33,527 Vol.
$33,527 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
94%
Partito Democratico
7%
$33,527 Vol.
$33,527 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$19,377 Vol.
94%
Partito Democratico
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mark Alford's 71% victory in 2024 and the recently upheld redrawn map that preserves rural and suburban conservative strongholds across west-central Missouri. With the August 4 primary and November 3 general election approaching, Alford faces limited intra-party competition while Democratic contenders remain fragmented in a district where Republican candidates have consistently secured large margins. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of recent polling shifts or major scandals that could alter the race trajectory. A late primary upset or unexpected national Democratic momentum could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$33,527Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mark Alford's 71% victory in 2024 and the recently upheld redrawn map that preserves rural and suburban conservative strongholds across west-central Missouri. With the August 4 primary and November 3 general election approaching, Alford faces limited intra-party competition while Democratic contenders remain fragmented in a district where Republican candidates have consistently secured large margins. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of recent polling shifts or major scandals that could alter the race trajectory. A late primary upset or unexpected national Democratic momentum could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,527Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mark Alford's 71% victory in 2024 and the recently upheld redrawn map that preserves rural and suburban conservative strongholds across west-central Missouri. With the August 4 primary and November 3 general election approaching, Alford faces limited intra-party competition while Democratic contenders remain fragmented in a district where Republican candidates have consistently secured large margins. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors, including historical turnout patterns and the absence of recent polling shifts or major scandals that could alter the race trajectory. A late primary upset or unexpected national Democratic momentum could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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