Incumbent Keith Ellison holds the strongest position in the Minnesota attorney general race, with traders assigning him the highest implied probability amid a contest rated a tossup by forecasters. Recent KSTP/SurveyUSA polling shows Republican Ronald J. Schutz narrowly ahead or tied, driven by attacks on Ellison’s record prosecuting Medicaid and social services fraud. Ellison counters by emphasizing consumer protection suits and independence from federal policy shifts under the Trump administration. Both campaigns have drawn heavy outside spending and negative advertising in the final weeks before the November 3 vote, while undecided moderates and turnout patterns outside the Twin Cities metro remain key variables that could shift the outcome.