Jeremy Moss holds a commanding lead in Michigan's 11th congressional district race due to the seat's established Democratic lean after 2022 redistricting, his decisive August primary win with nearly 50% of the vote, and endorsements from state party leaders including Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The open seat, vacated by Haley Stevens, features Moss's extensive legislative record in the state Senate against Ethan Baker, the unopposed Republican nominee and Troy mayor, who trails significantly in fundraising. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the outcome. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.