Lai Ching-te’s prospects for US transit stops hinge on Washington’s balancing of unofficial Taiwan ties against Beijing’s objections, particularly after the September 2026 Xi-Trump summit where Chinese leaders pressed for curbs on high-level contacts. As of early October 2026, Lai began a Pacific tour with approved stopovers in Hawaii and Guam en route to diplomatic partners in the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, marking continued use of US territory for such travel without a continental US visit as president. Recent US approval of F-16 and radar equipment sales, alongside Taiwan’s new Arizona trade office, signals sustained economic and security cooperation, while prior 2025 transit requests for Latin America were reportedly declined over trade talks with China. Allegations of Chinese surveillance targeting Lai’s family in the US add friction. Any near-term resolution depends on scheduled diplomatic partner visits and US policy signals before year-end.