Unity's withdrawal from Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election in early September drives the market's strong consensus for a sub-0.5% vote share. Founded in August by former Likud figures Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, the right-wing party cited persistently low polling below the 3.25% threshold, unsuccessful alliance negotiations including with Blue and White, and limited public appetite for a unity government. With the list removed from the ballot, no seats or meaningful votes are expected under Israel's proportional representation system. Late re-entry, a successful legal challenge to the withdrawal, or significant shifts in voter sentiment toward smaller right-wing lists represent the primary scenarios that could alter this outcome before election day.