Recent polls for the Reservists-New Economic Party ahead of Israel’s October 27 election show notable inconsistency, with Maariv surveys projecting four Knesset seats while other pollsters place the list below the 3.25% threshold. This volatility, combined with the party’s focus on universal conscription, reservist priorities, and economic liberalization, underpins trader consensus that a sub-2.75% share remains the most probable outcome. Efforts to secure surplus-vote agreements with other Zionist lists and competition near the threshold further contribute to the current pricing, where probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of the narrow path to clearing the electoral bar.