Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland and Doha, have produced limited progress on sanctions relief and IAEA inspections but stalled on Iran's uranium enrichment. Tehran has reaffirmed its position on sovereign rights to enrichment while rejecting complete termination, consistent with long-standing policy amid damaged facilities from prior conflicts. With roughly six weeks until the September 30 deadline, traders see negligible chance of a breakthrough given Iran's refusal to dismantle core capabilities and the absence of recent concessions. A verifiable shift would require mutual agreement on verifiable limits or stockpile disposition, though historical patterns and current impasse make such an outcome improbable before the cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre?
L'Iran accetta di porre fine all'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 30 settembre?
Sì
4% probabilità
$59,571 Vol.
$59,571 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$59,571 Vol.
$59,571 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland and Doha, have produced limited progress on sanctions relief and IAEA inspections but stalled on Iran's uranium enrichment. Tehran has reaffirmed its position on sovereign rights to enrichment while rejecting complete termination, consistent with long-standing policy amid damaged facilities from prior conflicts. With roughly six weeks until the September 30 deadline, traders see negligible chance of a breakthrough given Iran's refusal to dismantle core capabilities and the absence of recent concessions. A verifiable shift would require mutual agreement on verifiable limits or stockpile disposition, though historical patterns and current impasse make such an outcome improbable before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$59,571Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland and Doha, have produced limited progress on sanctions relief and IAEA inspections but stalled on Iran's uranium enrichment. Tehran has reaffirmed its position on sovereign rights to enrichment while rejecting complete termination, consistent with long-standing policy amid damaged facilities from prior conflicts. With roughly six weeks until the September 30 deadline, traders see negligible chance of a breakthrough given Iran's refusal to dismantle core capabilities and the absence of recent concessions. A verifiable shift would require mutual agreement on verifiable limits or stockpile disposition, though historical patterns and current impasse make such an outcome improbable before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$59,571Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland and Doha, have produced limited progress on sanctions relief and IAEA inspections but stalled on Iran's uranium enrichment. Tehran has reaffirmed its position on sovereign rights to enrichment while rejecting complete termination, consistent with long-standing policy amid damaged facilities from prior conflicts. With roughly six weeks until the September 30 deadline, traders see negligible chance of a breakthrough given Iran's refusal to dismantle core capabilities and the absence of recent concessions. A verifiable shift would require mutual agreement on verifiable limits or stockpile disposition, though historical patterns and current impasse make such an outcome improbable before the cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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