**President Trump has not invoked the Insurrection Act to date, despite multiple public threats tied to immigration enforcement operations.** In 2025, he referenced it amid protests against ICE surges in Los Angeles, Portland, and Chicago, where the administration instead relied on 10 U.S.C. § 12406 to federalize National Guard units for protecting federal personnel and property; courts later limited some of those deployments. A January 2026 threat following an ICE shooting in Minneapolis was quickly walked back. As of early October 2026, Trump told Time magazine he would not rule out the Act or a national emergency declaration ahead of the November midterms, citing potential unrest while noting historically low crime rates. Trader probabilities reflect the gap between repeated rhetoric, ongoing border and protest dynamics, court constraints on alternatives, and the absence of an actual invocation so far, with resolution hinging on formal presidential announcement before year-end.