**The high probability assigned to "No" (93.2%) on the "ICE Agent charged in Maine incident by August 31?" market reflects the standard pace and procedural requirements of investigations into federal officer-involved shootings.** The July 13, 2026, Biddeford shooting by ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations agent David Brouillette, which killed 25-year-old Colombian national Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero during a vehicle stop tied to an immigration enforcement operation, remains under review by DHS and the Department of Justice. The agent was placed on administrative leave, with no public indication of criminal charges, indictments, or referrals as of mid-August. Federal reviews of use-of-force incidents by ICE or other DHS personnel routinely involve internal affairs examinations, evidence collection (including body-camera footage and witness statements), and potential civil rights assessments before any charging decision. These steps rarely conclude in weeks, particularly absent immediate findings of clear misconduct or policy violations. Public reporting has highlighted the agent's prior history and family allegations of past conduct, yet no criminal record or pending charges against him have been confirmed in connection with this event. With only two weeks remaining until the resolution date, traders view the window as too narrow for the necessary interagency processes, grand jury involvement, or formal charging to occur. Any resolution would hinge on swift DOJ action or state-level involvement, neither of which has materialized in recent developments.