In Iowa’s 1st congressional district, trader consensus heavily favors Democrat Christina Bohannan at 88% over incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 12.5% because the seat has shifted from a narrow Republican hold to a Democratic-leaning contest. Miller-Meeks won the 2024 rematch by fewer than 800 votes after a 6.8-point margin in 2022, but recent polling shows Bohannan ahead and forecasters such as Sabato and Inside Elections have moved the race to Lean or Tilt Democratic. National midterm headwinds for Republicans, strong fundraising by both candidates exceeding $7 million each, and a three-way general election featuring independent Michael Bridgford have reinforced the shift. Late-September FEC complaints over a boycotted Iowa PBS debate and an early-October House Speaker rally for Miller-Meeks have not altered the implied probabilities.