How many states will 538 call correctly?
How many states will 538 call correctly?
46 99%
48 91%
47 15%
43 9.0%
$10,713 Vol.
$10,713 Vol.
5 nov 2024
50
No
49
No
48
No
47
No
46
Yes
45
No
44
No
43
No
<43
No
46 99%
48 91%
47 15%
43 9.0%
$10,713 Vol.
$10,713 Vol.
5 nov 2024
50
$5,112 Vol.
No
49
$1,846 Vol.
No
48
$975 Vol.
No
47
$409 Vol.
No
46
$1,313 Vol.
Yes
45
$121 Vol.
No
44
$123 Vol.
No
43
$241 Vol.
No
<43
$572 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 49 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight's correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 48 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 47 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 46 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 45 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If the FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 44 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 43 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in fewer than 43 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
Mercato aperto: Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ET
Volume
$10,713Data di fine
5 nov 2024Mercato aperto
Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 49 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight's correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 48 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 47 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 46 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 45 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If the FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 44 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in precisely 43 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in fewer than 43 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
Volume
$10,713Data di fine
5 nov 2024Mercato aperto
Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
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