Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges and tanker attacks around July 7-8 have driven Strait of Hormuz traffic to near-standstill levels, with only 22 total transits recorded on July 9 amid elevated war-risk premiums and shipowner diversions. This follows months of disruption from the 2026 crisis, where daily volumes remain far below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 vessels, reflecting cautious positioning by commercial operators facing insurance constraints and Iranian routing demands. Closely matched Polymarket probabilities across the 100-174 weekly buckets underscore uncertainty over whether the coming week sees stabilization, further escalation, or limited recovery in crude and LNG flows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 13 luglio?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 13 luglio?
<100 100.0%
100-124 <1%
125-149 <1%
150-174 <1%
$65,472 Vol.
$65,472 Vol.
19 lug 2026
<100
Sì
100-124
No
125-149
No
150-174
No
175+
No
<100 100.0%
100-124 <1%
125-149 <1%
150-174 <1%
$65,472 Vol.
$65,472 Vol.
19 lug 2026
<100
$46,215 Vol.
Sì
100-124
$7,164 Vol.
No
125-149
$3,739 Vol.
No
150-174
$4,190 Vol.
No
175+
$4,164 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges and tanker attacks around July 7-8 have driven Strait of Hormuz traffic to near-standstill levels, with only 22 total transits recorded on July 9 amid elevated war-risk premiums and shipowner diversions. This follows months of disruption from the 2026 crisis, where daily volumes remain far below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 vessels, reflecting cautious positioning by commercial operators facing insurance constraints and Iranian routing demands. Closely matched Polymarket probabilities across the 100-174 weekly buckets underscore uncertainty over whether the coming week sees stabilization, further escalation, or limited recovery in crude and LNG flows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Jul 10, 2026, 6:31 PM ET
Volume
$65,472Data di fine
19 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges and tanker attacks around July 7-8 have driven Strait of Hormuz traffic to near-standstill levels, with only 22 total transits recorded on July 9 amid elevated war-risk premiums and shipowner diversions. This follows months of disruption from the 2026 crisis, where daily volumes remain far below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 vessels, reflecting cautious positioning by commercial operators facing insurance constraints and Iranian routing demands. Closely matched Polymarket probabilities across the 100-174 weekly buckets underscore uncertainty over whether the coming week sees stabilization, further escalation, or limited recovery in crude and LNG flows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$65,472Data di fine
19 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges and tanker attacks around July 7-8 have driven Strait of Hormuz traffic to near-standstill levels, with only 22 total transits recorded on July 9 amid elevated war-risk premiums and shipowner diversions. This follows months of disruption from the 2026 crisis, where daily volumes remain far below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 100 vessels, reflecting cautious positioning by commercial operators facing insurance constraints and Iranian routing demands. Closely matched Polymarket probabilities across the 100-174 weekly buckets underscore uncertainty over whether the coming week sees stabilization, further escalation, or limited recovery in crude and LNG flows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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