Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 3 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 3 agosto?
25-49 99.5%
50-74 <1%
<25 <1%
75-99 <1%
$77,118 Vol.
$77,118 Vol.
9 ago 2026
<25
No
25-49
Sì
50-74
No
75-99
No
100+
No
25-49 99.5%
50-74 <1%
<25 <1%
75-99 <1%
$77,118 Vol.
$77,118 Vol.
9 ago 2026
<25
$23,197 Vol.
No
25-49
$14,974 Vol.
Sì
50-74
$11,203 Vol.
No
75-99
$8,852 Vol.
No
100+
$18,892 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$77,118Data di fine
9 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$77,118Data di fine
9 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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