Democrats currently hold zero of Iowa’s four U.S. House seats, but trader consensus favors three wins at 41.5 percent because national conditions and district-specific dynamics align against Republicans. Midterm headwinds, a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and sagging presidential approval have elevated IA-1 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, where Christina Bohannan leads or trails narrowly in recent surveys against vulnerable incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks. IA-3 remains competitive for Sarah Trone Garriott against Zach Nunn, while the open IA-2 seat draws DCCC attention despite its stronger Republican baseline. IA-4 stays safely Republican. These factors position two or three flips as the most probable outcomes, with four wins discounted by structural barriers in the northwest district and one or zero wins seen as outliers absent major shifts before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato3 42%
2 30%
1 10.2%
0 8.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 nov 2026
0
9%
1
13%
2
30%
3
42%
4
4%
3 42%
2 30%
1 10.2%
0 8.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 nov 2026
0
$700 Vol.
9%
1
$920 Vol.
13%
2
$2,598 Vol.
30%
3
$1,157 Vol.
42%
4
$465 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold zero of Iowa’s four U.S. House seats, but trader consensus favors three wins at 41.5 percent because national conditions and district-specific dynamics align against Republicans. Midterm headwinds, a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and sagging presidential approval have elevated IA-1 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, where Christina Bohannan leads or trails narrowly in recent surveys against vulnerable incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks. IA-3 remains competitive for Sarah Trone Garriott against Zach Nunn, while the open IA-2 seat draws DCCC attention despite its stronger Republican baseline. IA-4 stays safely Republican. These factors position two or three flips as the most probable outcomes, with four wins discounted by structural barriers in the northwest district and one or zero wins seen as outliers absent major shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volume
$5,840Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold zero of Iowa’s four U.S. House seats, but trader consensus favors three wins at 41.5 percent because national conditions and district-specific dynamics align against Republicans. Midterm headwinds, a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and sagging presidential approval have elevated IA-1 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, where Christina Bohannan leads or trails narrowly in recent surveys against vulnerable incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks. IA-3 remains competitive for Sarah Trone Garriott against Zach Nunn, while the open IA-2 seat draws DCCC attention despite its stronger Republican baseline. IA-4 stays safely Republican. These factors position two or three flips as the most probable outcomes, with four wins discounted by structural barriers in the northwest district and one or zero wins seen as outliers absent major shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,840Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Democrats currently hold zero of Iowa’s four U.S. House seats, but trader consensus favors three wins at 41.5 percent because national conditions and district-specific dynamics align against Republicans. Midterm headwinds, a Democratic-leaning generic ballot, and sagging presidential approval have elevated IA-1 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, where Christina Bohannan leads or trails narrowly in recent surveys against vulnerable incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks. IA-3 remains competitive for Sarah Trone Garriott against Zach Nunn, while the open IA-2 seat draws DCCC attention despite its stronger Republican baseline. IA-4 stays safely Republican. These factors position two or three flips as the most probable outcomes, with four wins discounted by structural barriers in the northwest district and one or zero wins seen as outliers absent major shifts before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
I Democratici vinceranno esattamente 9 seggi alla Camera in Pennsylvania nelle elezioni di midterm del 2026?
35%
Sì
I Democratici vinceranno esattamente 4 seggi alla Camera in Minnesota nelle elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
60%
Sì
I Democratici vinceranno esattamente 1 seggio alla Camera in Alabama nelle elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
53%
Sì
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti